Tescott, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

754
FXUS63 KTOP 081944
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
244 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move across eastern
Kansas with additional chances of showers and storms later tonight
and into Tuesday morning.
- Warming temperatures this week with highs getting back into the
mid to upper 80s by the week`s end.
- A few chances for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday, but
  chances remain fairly low at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Afternoon mid-level water vapor imagery shows a compact MCV over
eastern Kansas that has been responsible for very heavy rainfall
totals resulting in flash flooding, mainly across central Kansas.
Over the past few hours, this complex of storms has shifted a bit
further south into WFO ICTs area, but as the mid-level wave pushes
east through the afternoon, areas of PoPs will persist for areas
along and south of I-70. Luckily, not expecting continued heavy
rainfall across our area as most precipitation will be high-based
and stratiform in nature. Given the rain and widespread cloud cover,
temperatures this afternoon will not warm much, topping out in the
60s and low 70s. This evening, some subsidence on the backside of
the MCV should provide a lull in precipitation chances. Chances of
showers and isolated storms return around midnight as a
strengthening LLJ sets up across central Kansas with a speed
gradient positioned over northeast and east-central Kansas. This
paired with another mid-level perturbation coming out of Nebraska
should help to create widespread showers and isolated storms capable
of brief heavy rain. Luckily, the best chance for storm development
will be east of areas that saw the flooding this morning. With
overnight PWATs ranging from 1.25-1.75 inches, cannot rule out some
areas seeing rain totals of an inch or so by mid Tuesday morning,
but most across eastern Kansas will likely only see a few tenths.
Rain should come to an end late Tuesday morning across east-central
Kansas.
Attention then turns to mid-level ridge building across the central
Plains and an expected warm up back into the upper 80s by the
weekend. There will be some chances for precipitation Wednesday
morning through the later afternoon as another mid-level
perturbation tracks across central Kansas, but better forcing with
this system seems to stay to our south, so not expecting much of our
area to see widespread PoPs Wednesday. That said, if convection can
develop widespread cloud cover and linger it through the afternoon,
afternoon temps Wednesday may stay a few degrees cooler. Beyond
Wednesday, the mid-level ridge settles over the central and southern
Plains with deep mixing and ample sun each afternoon into the
weekend. This should keep afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s
and low 90s through the weekend and into early next week. Signs of
this pattern breaking down come next week, but there is still a bit
of disagreement in long-range guidance to be certain.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
High-based showers will move across the area today with some
rumbles of thunder possible at KMHK. CIGs should remain VFR and
above 6kft with heavier showers possibly bringing down
visibilities to MVFR at times. The next round of rain/storm
chances come overnight tonight and into early Tuesday morning.
Overall confidence on coverage is low to medium, so opted to
just keep precipitation mention at VCSH with a PROB30 group in
for accompanying thunder.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion