Texline, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

123
FXUS64 KAMA 241129
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Scattered light rain showers are moving east this morning north of
the Interstate 40 corridor. Light rain amounts under a quarter
inch are expected with this activity. Additional showers or storms
may move south out of Kansas over the northeastern Panhandles
around sunrise this morning. After this activity moves off to the
east by mid morning, dry conditions are expected the rest of the
day. Minor edits were made to the ongoing forecast based on obs
and hi-res model trends.
Muscha
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Cooler highs expected tomorrow. Warmer days forecast for the rest
of the week.
A low chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms in the
Southeastern Panhandles for Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
As of later tonight, latest radar was seeing showers and
thunderstorms slowly spreading southeast across the Panhandles
from Eastern New Mexico. These storms are expected to linger
through the overnight with drier air expected to evict most of
them out of the Panhandles during the mid-morning hours, with low
clouds expected to take their place. The only exception to this is
the low potential for some weak light showers to hold on in the
Eastern Panhandles for the afternoon as a few of the CAMs see some
wrap around moisture sneak in with the exit of the system. From
there drier weather looks to set in for the next few days as most
models see an upper-level ridge build and push over the
Panhandles. This drier weather will allow for temperatures to heat
up as we go from high temperatures in the 70s today back into the
low 80s by Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Moving into Friday and Saturday has most models agreeing to the
upper-level ridge holding over the Panhandles. With the ridge in
place, the Panhandles will look to stay dry through most of Friday
and Saturday, with temperatures warming back into mid to upper
80s. From there model agreement does see a new upper-level closed
low try to move across the Southwestern United State late Saturday
into Sunday. At this time, there is still some disagreement on how
much of an impact this system will have on the Panhandle, though a
couple of recent runs have seen better chances at showers. For now
the NBM is preferring a dry approach with chances of precipitation
only in the far Southwest Sunday at 10 to 20%. From here model
agreement only gets worse as we head into the new week, with both
the ECMWF and GFS not sure how to progress the upper-level closed
low pasted the Great Plains. For now, a drier outlook has been the
trend with temperatures holding in the low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
MVFR ceilings are currently being observed at KDHT and KGUY. KAMA
has the potential for brief MVFR ceilings this morning, but have
kept conditions VFR for now and will amend if necessary. Clouds
will clear out by late morning into the early afternoon and VFR
conditions are expected for the rest of this TAF cycle at that
point. Winds will be out of the north with gusts upwards of 20-30
kts during the daytime hours. Winds are forecast to become light
and variable during the later half of this TAF period.
Muscha
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion