Thompson, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

233
FXUS63 KMQT 130521
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
121 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and a few thunderstorms tonight into Saturday morning.
- Warmer temperatures mainly in the 70s through the forecast period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Observations from around the area show a pleasant early fall day
across Upper Michigan, with temperatures generally in the 70s this
afternoon as a positively tilted upper level ridge extends over the
region from the Great Plains. Mid and high level cloud cover is
beginning to stream into the area from the west in association with
an upstream disturbance riding over the top of the ridge. Regional
radar shows areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms over
Minnesota starting to move into western Lake Superior and northern
Wisconsin, with latest hi-res guidance depicting this activity
reaching the far western U.P this evening and continuing eastward
across the area overnight. A few thunderstorms have reached severe
thresholds over MN this afternoon, but do not expect that to be the
case here as storms encounter a more marginally unstable environment
characterized by MUCAPE values of 200-400 J/kg. Still, bulk
shear values around 30 kt will at least be capable of
maintaining a few stronger updrafts as the activity pushes into
the area this evening. For the most part do not expect
significant rainfall from this system as the NBM only depicts
about a 25-35% probability for most locations to see even a
quarter of an inch. That said, embedded thunderstorms could
certainly produce some localized heavier rainfall as
precipitable water values increase to around 1.5 inches
overnight, with the best chances to see rainfall amounts over a
half inch residing along the WI border.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
High pressure remains in control from Sunday through much of the
coming week as ensembles continue to show good agreement on a stout
upper level ridge gradually shifting eastward across northern
Ontario through Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to trend
upward as a result, with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s
through the period and even some low 80s across the western
half of the U.P. during the first half of next week. Latest NBM
probabilistic guidance gives the Marquette area around a 25-30%
chance to reach 80 degrees both Tuesday and Wednesday. There
remains some potential for a few disturbances to clip the area
with a few periods of showers and thunderstorms next week as the
ridge axis nudges east of the area. However, latest guidance
has trended a bit drier for Monday and Tuesday, generally
keeping 15-30% PoPs confined to the far west before spreading to
the rest of the U.P. Wednesday and Thursday of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
VFR will be the predominant flight category with a few exceptions
early this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to
make their way from northwest to southeast across Upper Michigan
early this morning. IWD is pretty much done with the precipitation,
but tempos are moreso needed at CMX and SAW through Sat 10Z until
activity exits the forecast area. In the wake of showers, fog
formation could result in MVFR/IFR visibility restrictions at CMX
and SAW through daybreak. Fog should dissipate by mid-morning with
onset of daytime heating. Winds will remain light and non-impactful.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Light winds of generally 10-15 kt or less expected through the
period as high pressure remains over the region. May see a short
lived period of 20 kt gusts over the western half of Lake Superior
on Sunday in response to tightening pressure gradient associated
with strengthening low pressure over the northern Plains, but do not
expect Small Craft Advisory criteria to be met at this time. A weak
clipper will bring some light rain and potentially a few
thunderstorms to the area this evening through early Saturday
morning. Otherwise, dry weather expected through the weekend.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...CB

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion