Three Notch, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

567
FXUS64 KBMX 012309
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
609 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
- No hazardous weather impacts are anticipated the next seven
   days. However, drought conditions are most likely going to
   increase across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
Look for only minimal isolated shower activity (with a low chance
of thunder) this afternoon and evening in the WRN counties with
weak troughing. Otherwise, the remainder of the short term looks
to be dry. The sky should clear out tonight as the trough nudges
WWD. A tad cooler air influx from the NE/E should allow for low
temps 4-8 degrees lower tonight across much of C AL and highs a
few degrees lower in the E for Thu.
08
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
No major changes were made in the extended forecast with a low to
moderate chance of diurnal showers and tstorms starting Sun
afternoon with overall moisture increasing. Highs will have a E-W
gradient with mid-upper 70s E to mid 80s W. This is near normal
to slightly above normal highs for C AL for early Oct. Lows
moderate some as we progress through the extended.
08
Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
The high will continue over the state Friday and Saturday,
keeping dry weather and cooler temperatures each day. Winds will
remain out of the east and northeast, breezy each day. By Sunday,
a trough approaches the southeast US, with the high weakening and
moving east. With flow around the high, this puts central Alabama
with southeasterly to easterly flow that transitions to have a
southerly component by the beginning of the workweek. Moisture
will advect into the state with a low to moderate chance for
diurnal convection Sunday through Tuesday. There is some
uncertainty as to how much moisture will return and how quickly,
but there is general consensus for now that there will be at least
scattered convection, higher coverage in the southeast closer to
the moisture advection.
With dry conditions for several days, drought could easily become
worse in many areas. High temperatures will hover in the 80s
through the extended, with the coolest lows expected Friday night,
with values as low as the upper 50s.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle. Winds will pick up
Thursday afternoon at MGM/AUO during the afternoon hours with
gusts around 20 knots likely at times. Winds begin to relax during
the early evening hours.
95/Castillo
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The area should remain mostly dry, except for a few isolated
showers and storms in the west portions of Central Alabama
through early evening, with minRH values falling into the low to
mid 30s for many areas this afternoon through Friday. Given the
sharp east shift in the tropical trends, no significant moisture
return is expected until late weekend and into early next week
with low rain chances by Sunday afternoon. Because of this,
drought conditions will remain ongoing, with additional expansion
possible given the lack of rain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  83  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    60  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  64  84  58  82 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  62  88  58  86 /  20   0   0   0
Calera      62  86  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      62  80  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  63  83  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        62  82  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...95/Castillo

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion