Tornillo, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

008
FXUS64 KEPZ 261700
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1100 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected each afternoon
   through Sunday.
- Localized heavy rainfall and a few strong to severe
   thunderstorms will be possible.
- Thunderstorm chances will diminish on Monday, and mainly be
   focused east of the Rio Grande, before a general drying and
   warming trend arrives for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Upper low has moved through southern CA and is about in it`s home
for the next couple of days. This will keep chances for
precipitation across the region through the weekend. There is
already convection going on in SE AZ which will help to trigger
storms over the CWA this afternoon and overnight and once again on
Saturday. There will be a chance for some strong/severe storms
with wind being the main threat today with the outflows similar to
yesterday, although some hail will be possible out west.
As we head into Sat night and Sun, the upper low will start to
open up and lift northeastward. Looks like enough moisture around
and still some upper level forcing that there will be some shower
activity around through the overnight hours Sat. Models still
setting up a pseudo dryline as this happens on Sun and this will
be a focus for storm development. With the low lifting out,
mid/upper level flow increases out of the SW which in turn
increases the shear, especially on the eastern side of this
boundary. Think this is still best chance for severe storms,
mainly east of the RGV as the dry air visible on east side of
upper low makes it`s way into western zones. Overall looks like
QPF amounts of a half inch to one inch look reasonable with some
localized 2 inch amounts with the stronger storms. Temperatures
through the weekend will be about 5 degrees below normal.
Things will start to quiet down on Monday, but there is still a
weak trough lifting out with just some light showers possible,
mainly east and mountains. Monday night we will see the drier air
spread across the area and skies will clear out.
For Tue through Fri, temperatures start to warm back up as ridge
builds over the southern Rockies. May see some lower 90s over the
lower elevations for Wed-Fri. Dry air at the surface will allow
for some nice diurnal swings with lows in the 50s for the lowlands
and some 40s and even 30s in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
P6SM FEW-SCT070-090 SCT-BKN200-250 through at least 12Z with
scattered to numerous 3-5SM TSRA BKN040-060 developing out west by
19Z and spreading across the area into the evening hours.
Confident in KDMN and KTCS seeing storms and went with TEMPO
group, further east at KLRU and KELP, have PROB30s. Outflow winds
will bring gusts over 30KTS again as well. Isolated activity may
linger over eastern areas after 06Z. Skies will start to become
FEW-SCT080-100 over the west with greater cloud coverage lingering
over the east through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Upper low off to the west will bring a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the region through the weekend. This will limit
the fire threat as RH`s will remain well above 30 percent this
weekend. 1/2"-1" rainfall amounts look likely for most of the area
by Monday morning. Drier air pushes in early next week with high
temperatures warming back above normal by Wednesday but RH`s look
to remain above 20 percent with winds remaining light.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  63  83  62  80 /  50  50  70  60
Sierra Blanca            58  79  56  74 /  50  70  80  70
Las Cruces               60  78  57  76 /  50  50  70  60
Alamogordo               60  80  57  77 /  30  60  80  70
Cloudcroft               45  59  41  54 /  30  70  80  80
Truth or Consequences    56  78  56  76 /  50  40  70  60
Silver City              53  72  50  72 /  70  50  70  60
Deming                   57  80  56  80 /  60  40  70  40
Lordsburg                56  77  56  78 /  70  40  50  30
West El Paso Metro       63  80  62  77 /  50  50  70  60
Dell City                61  81  59  78 /  40  60  70  70
Fort Hancock             63  83  62  81 /  50  70  70  70
Loma Linda               58  74  55  71 /  50  60  70  70
Fabens                   63  82  61  78 /  50  50  70  70
Santa Teresa             61  79  59  76 /  50  50  70  50
White Sands HQ           61  80  59  76 /  50  60  70  70
Jornada Range            58  78  57  75 /  50  50  70  70
Hatch                    60  81  57  79 /  50  40  70  60
Columbus                 59  80  58  80 /  60  40  70  40
Orogrande                59  77  56  74 /  40  50  80  70
Mayhill                  50  69  47  63 /  30  70  70  80
Mescalero                50  71  45  65 /  30  70  80  80
Timberon                 49  67  44  61 /  30  70  80  80
Winston                  48  71  46  69 /  60  40  70  60
Hillsboro                55  77  52  75 /  60  40  70  60
Spaceport                55  78  55  76 /  50  50  70  70
Lake Roberts             48  73  46  73 /  60  50  70  60
Hurley                   53  74  51  74 /  70  50  70  50
Cliff                    52  78  50  79 /  70  50  60  30
Mule Creek               52  74  48  75 /  70  40  50  30
Faywood                  55  74  53  73 /  70  50  70  60
Animas                   58  78  55  79 /  70  50  40  30
Hachita                  57  77  55  77 /  70  40  60  30
Antelope Wells           57  77  54  79 /  60  40  40  30
Cloverdale               56  72  52  74 /  70  50  30  30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion