Toyah, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

568
FXUS64 KMAF 190504
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1204 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1203 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Low rain chances (10-30%) continue in the higher terrain and in
  Southeast New Mexico through Saturday.
- Summer-like temperatures return Sunday and Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Water vapor imagery continues to show an upper-level trough sitting
over the Great Plains this afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak front has
stalled north of our viewing area. While this front is forecast to
at least near the area tonight, it is expected to wash out as it
approaches our northern counties and have little effect on our
weather. Thus, besides some low (10-20%) rain chances in our
northern zones, the majority of shower and thunderstorm activity is
once again expected in and around the higher terrain (10-30%
chances). Rain chances tomorrow look similar to today`s, with
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms forecast from
the Davis Mountains north into Southeast New Mexico (10-30%), the
product of upslope flow and weak pulses in the northwesterly flow
aloft.
Temperatures remain consistent with those of the previous few days.
Highs top out in the upper 80s and low 90s for most today and
tomorrow. Meanwhile lows in the 60s are anticipated areawide,
except for 50s in the higher terrain and 70s along the Rio Grande.
However, we are still anticipating a warming trend to commence
during the Long Term Period...
Sprang
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Saturday`s forecast is pretty similar to that of the Short Term
Period. Temperatures top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, and the
best rain chances (10-30%) will be in the Davis Mountains.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the far
northeastern Permian Basin due to a passing shortwave, but
chances look pretty low overall (10-20%). Sunday is a different
story. Ridging aloft in northern Mexico begins to amplify, and our
surface winds take on a westerly/southwesterly downsloping
component. As a result, summer-like temperature make a
reappearance across our region Sunday and Monday. Temperatures are
expected to top out in the mid to upper 90s for most locations,
with some 100s forecast in parts of the Pecos and Rio Grande river
valleys. The downsloping winds will also help dry us out a little
more, so rain chances through Monday afternoon are negligible.
There still remains a good deal of inconsistency in the models as to
how next week (after Monday) will play out. An upper-level trough is
expected enter the Plains by Tuesday. However, models disagree on
the strength, positioning, and speed of the system. Deterministic
and ensemble European model guidance has tended to bring the system
farther south and be less progressive than the GEFS and
deterministic GFS (especially the newest run of the GFS). Thus, it
remains to be seen if the trough will usher in more seasonable
temperatures (which is what the Euro wants to do), or if we will
miss out and remain 8-12 degrees above normal. Stay tuned for
updates!
Sprang
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions expected throughout TAF period, apart from MVFR or
lower conditions at terminals over SE NM plains where any
isolated showers/storms occur. Southeast winds, becoming gusty
15-20 knots 14Z-17Z into 01Z-03Z for terminals from Stockton
Plateau into Permian Basin, before decreasing back down below 15
knots. Winds shift to westerly/northwesterly at CNM 04Z into end
of period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  66  92  68 /  10   0  10  10
Carlsbad                 88  66  90  66 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                   91  69  93  69 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Stockton            90  68  92  69 /  10   0  20   0
Guadalupe Pass           79  62  82  65 /  30  20  20  10
Hobbs                    87  63  88  64 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                    83  58  84  59 /  20  10  30   0
Midland Intl Airport     91  68  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                   89  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                     90  67  91  67 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...94

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion