Tracy-Clark, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

779
FXUS65 KREV 190747
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1247 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Showers and isolated thunderstorms return today and potentially
  each afternoon through mid-week.
* Cooler temperatures today, then a slight warming trend through
  next week.
* Another weather system possible as early as Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Light showers are ongoing this morning across western NV and the
Tahoe Basin. These showers are expected to dissipate over the next
few hours.
Cloudy skies will remain this morning as this system continues to
work its way north. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will start in
southern Mono County near Mammoth Lakes around 1 PM today. They`ll
start to pop up more frequently after 3 PM around Tahoe and the
Greater Reno area. There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty in
location and timing of these showers, even being less than 24 hours
out. But we`ll maintain a 20-40% chance of showers and 10-30% chance
of thunderstorms this afternoon between 2-7 PM. Late this evening,
the showers will subside and the sky will clear up a little bit as
the system weakens and moves out.
Saturday looks like a much drier day, though isolated showers and
thunderstorms are back in the forecast at a 15-20% chance. Models
are not handling the convection well, and each model has showers in
a different location for Saturday onward. Aloft, the models have a
low pressure system off the coast in different locations,  Speaking
of which, after Saturday we could see daily chances for isolated
showers and thunderstorms. However, once we get to mid-week, we will
see the possibility of another round of tropical moisture.
-Justin
&&
.AVIATION...
Light showers are ongoing around the Tahoe Basin near KTVL/KTRK this
morning, but are expected to dissipate in the next couple hours
before 9Z. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to move
into the vicinity of KMMH late this morning (19Z). Showers will pop
up near all other main terminals later in the afternoon around 21Z
and will last through roughly 3Z. Reductions to VIS/CIGS down to
MVFR are expected, although there`s a 10-30% chance of lightning and
heavier showers which could reduce VIS to IFR. Expect light winds
out of the south and west gusting up to 10-15kt this afternoon.
Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms return Friday, though
high uncertainty remains in location and timing.
-Justin
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$

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