883 FXUS65 KVEF 030904 AFDVEFArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 204 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds to the region today, with increased precipitation chances for the Great Basin and eastern Sierra.
* Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the weekend before rising back to near normal next week.
* Dry weather is expected from Saturday at least through Wednesday. Beginning Thursday, there is a chance for tropical moisture to be pulled into the Desert Southwest, but there is a lot of uncertainty. &&
.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday. Early morning satellite loop showed two bands of clouds associated with the incoming trough - one located in northwest Inyo and western Esmeralda counties and the other located in Clark and Lincoln counties. Area radars showed weak returns over the Sierra Nevada with occasional lightning strikes. Surface obs showed warmer and drier conditions than 24 hours ago with areas of gusty southwest winds. The winds will be the main forecast concern today. The Wind Advisories for the Spring Mountains and most of the San Bernardino County deserts still look good. Just north of the northwest tip of the Spring Mountains, Desert Rock has started to gust early this morning. There has been a history of isolated downslope winds in this area during the early part of wind events before the mean wind vector veers from southerly to southwesterly. Since this will affect Highway 95 but not Pahrump (the population center in the same forecast zone), will handle it in conjunction with the highway patrol rather than expanding the Advisory. Farther north, chances for showers and thunderstorms along with high mountain snow will swing east through Inyo, Esmeralda, Nye, and Lincoln counties today and tonight. Amounts should be light and more beneficial than hazardous, barring any training thunderstorms. The main low will exit to the northeast Saturday morning, leaving behind a weak baggy trough for the first half of next week. This will result in a slow, steady warming trend from about five degrees below normal Saturday to near normal Wednesday. From Thursday onward, forecast confidence is very low. By that time, the next low in the westerlies is expected to be nearing the West Coast, with the usual uncertainty in the exact position/track/depth. At the same time, presumed Hurricane Priscilla is forecast to be somewhere west of the southern tip of the Baja. Will the low in the westerlies be far enough south and east, and will Priscilla be far enough north, for tropical moisture to be pulled north into the Desert Southwest? Well...maybe. We can`t be sure that it will, but we also can`t be sure that it won`t. Timing is also a big question. Some model solutions show chances for showers and storms southeast of I-15 as early as Thursday, others show a stormy weekend, and others keep the moisture away from our area altogether. Will continue to monitor trends. &&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Breezy south-southwest winds will continue through the overnight period. Early Friday morning, southwesterly wind gusts will pick up to around 25 kts... further increasing mid-afternoon to around 30 kts. Southwest gusts decrease in speed and frequency after sunset. Between 08 and 10Z, a front will push through southern Nevada, resulting in a sudden wind shift from the northwest, with gusts between 15 and 20 kts. FEW-SCT aoa 25 kft through the TAF period.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and southeastern California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Gusty south- southwest wind gusts will peak Friday afternoon at Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites, with speeds generally between 20 and 28 kts and peaking between 30 and 35 kts at times. Gust speed and frequency will decrease after sunset. A front will push through the region overnight, with a sudden wind shift in southern Nevada from the northwest between 08 and 10Z and along the Colorado River Valley from the west-northwest between 03 and 05Z... becoming northerly Saturday morning. KBIH will experience breezy north winds overnight, with northwesterly wind gusts peaking between 25 and 30 kts Friday afternoon. Shower activity over the Sierra Crest and White Mountains will be visible from the terminal, with best chances of vicinity showers between 10 and 17Z. Gusty west winds at KDAG peaking between 30 and 35 kts. FEW-SCT aoa 25 kft through the TAF period. &&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. &&
$$
DISCUSSION...Morgan AVIATION...Soulat
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion