Turnerville, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

679
FXUS64 KMOB 071720
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Longwave troughing over the Great Lakes region will begin to lift
away to the northeast on Monday. In its wake, a weak, residual
trough is expected to linger across the southeast US through the
week before moving off into the western Atlantic by next weekend.
At the surface, a frontal boundary has pushed through the area
this past evening, with another, stronger cold front currently
across northern Alabama/Mississippi. This second front will push
through the area later today and will eventually stall over the
northern/central Gulf. Behind it, a much drier airmass will filter
in, likely causing dewpoints to plummet into the upper 40s to low
50s tonight. This push of drier air will be very brief, however,
as high pressure to our north will anchor itself over the
Appalachians by Monday afternoon. Initially, this will allow for
moisture to surge into the local area from the east, potentially
allowing for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop
across the southern half of the the area on Monday and Tuesday
afternoons. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, guidance suggests that
another cold air damming event could set up across the southeast
US as low pressure systems attempt to develop along the stalled
front off the US east coast and the high lingers over the
Appalachians. If it manages to reach us, it probably will not
result in cooler temperatures, but guidance does suggest that it
could lead to drier conditions and lower dewpoints for the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. Highs through the
period will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s. With the
initial push of direr air, lows tonight will likely cool into the
low to mid 60s across the region. Lows through the remainder of
the period will range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the low
70s along the immediate coast. A Low Risk of rip currents
continues through Monday, increasing to a High Risk by Tuesday as
strong marine winds gain a more easterly component. The rip
current risk slowly subsides back to a Low risk by Thursday. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR flight category has slowly returned to all locations outside
of a few lingering spots across eastern Mobile County that will
hang onto MVFR ceilings through 1 or 2pm. After this, VFR flight
category is expected to prevail across the entire area through
tonight and the day Monday. Winds will remain out of the north at
around 5 to 10 knots, gusting to 15 to 20 knots through daybreak
Monday. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Northerly to northeasterly winds are beginning to develop as a
front pushes across the local marine zones. Over the next few
days, winds will increase to moderate to strong each night through
the morning hours, and will briefly weaken to light to moderate
during the afternoon hours. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
from late this evening through late Monday morning for our local
Gulf waters, and another advisory may become necessary for Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Exercise caution headlines will be in
place for our local bays and sounds. A moderate easterly flow
becomes established by Tuesday and lingers through midweek. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  88  68  87  68  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  30  10  10  10  10
Pensacola   69  88  72  86  72  88  71  89 /   0  20  30  30  20  20  10  10
Destin      71  87  73  86  72  87  73  89 /  10  20  30  30  20  20  10  10
Evergreen   61  88  67  88  64  89  64  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Waynesboro  58  85  65  88  65  90  65  91 /   0   0   0  10  10  10   0  10
Camden      60  86  66  87  64  89  64  90 /   0   0   0  10  10  10   0   0
Crestview   65  89  68  87  66  89  65  91 /   0  20  20  20  10  10  10  10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion