251 FXUS64 KSJT 161856 AFDSJTArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 156 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm, but near-normal temperatures continue today
- Low chance for showers and thunderstorms beyond Thursday. Warm temperatures to continue.
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.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
The upper level ridge will continue to weaken over our area as an upper level trough moves into the central U.S. from the west. The weakening upper ridging could allow for some isolated diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Cumulus clouds are popping up across West Central Texas this afternoon, with a few showers developing to our north already. Coverage is expected to remain minimal, so PoPs are generally limited to around 10 to 15%. Temperatures will remain above normal tomorrow, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
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.LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Little change expected through early next week. A moist airmass will persist across the area through the extended period, with near normal to slightly above normal temperatures expected. Periodic weak disturbances aloft will bring low rain chances to the area mainly Friday into early next week, but showers/storms will be hit or miss. Latest GFS develops a closed low over the region early next week, which would increase rain chances but confidence in this scenario is low at this time.
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. We could see an isolated shower this afternoon, however chances are too low to include in the TAFs.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 69 93 70 92 / 10 10 0 10 San Angelo 66 90 67 91 / 0 10 0 10 Junction 64 91 64 91 / 10 10 0 10 Brownwood 66 92 67 92 / 10 10 0 10 Sweetwater 68 91 68 92 / 0 10 0 10 Ozona 64 89 66 88 / 0 0 0 10 Brady 67 89 67 89 / 10 10 0 10
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.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...AP LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...AP
NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion