Union Grove, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

249
FXUS64 KHUN 060510
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1210 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Saturday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the past few
hours have been forming over western Tennessee, then tracking ENE
to SE Kentucky. The southernmost cells associated with this
activity have been staying just north of the greater Huntsville
forecast area, so far. A wider out view indicated more showers
were forming over Arkansas, with stronger convection along the
eastern Red River Valley of OK/TX. Another item of interest is a
cold front that extended from western PA/NY, eastern Kentucky,
near Nashville and SW Arkansas. That boundary should be moving
across the forecast area in the overnight, with a resultant wind
shift to the NW as the front moves to the SE.
A few complicating items makes for a challenging short term
forecast on the if/when it will rain. Output from the newer 00Z
model runs had various solutions on that question. For the late
evening and early overnight, the HRRR was the driest, followed by
the RAP and NAM, while the FV3 and ARW were the wettest, bringing
showers and storms around and after midnight. At the moment am
leaning to the drier solutions, given not much activity was
beginning to form to our SW. Otherwise, low temperatures by
daybreak Saturday should cool into the 60s.
The above mentioned convection over the Red River Valley, and
newer showers/storms forming east of them, should begin impacting
the Tennessee Valley towards daybreak Saturday. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are expected mainly in the morning.
Shower activity should wind down from NW to SE during the course
of the day as somewhat drier air filters in from the NW. High
temps to end the week should range from the mid 70s NW to lower
80s SE under generally cloudy skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A chilly surface high will build southward from Canada over the
next few days. This airmass change will be evident Saturday night,
as low temperatures tumble into the 50s (lower 50s north to upper
50s south). Under sunny skies, cooler and dry conditions will
continue on Sunday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80.
Similarly cool temperatures are forecast Sun night with lows in
the low/mid 50s. A bit warmer on Monday with highs in the low/mid
80s under generally sunny skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Guidance continues to show high pressure will control the regions
general weather for the upcoming work week. Dry weather should
continue for the period. Low temperatures for the period should
range from the upper 50s to the low/mid 60s. High temperatures
Tuesday should range in the 80s. Somewhat warmer conditions are
forecast for Thursday and Friday, with highs from the mid 80s and
into the lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Convection had recently formed over portions of NW AL, just NW of
KMSL. Newer guidance for the most part has the convection moving
ENE. But given southward building of convection, so have a TEMPO
for storms impacting KMSL/KHSV over the next several hours.
Additional convection is forecast to move over the region after
sunrise Sat morning. This activity should diminish from NW-SE, as
drier air north of a cold front filters across the Tennessee
Valley. With convection both periods, CIG and VSBY values could be
reduced below MVFR for a brief period.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RSB

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion