University, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

781
FXUS65 KREV 101912 AAA
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1156 AM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Widespread showers and a few t-storms expected today and again
  Thursday. Possible light snow above 9,000 feet in the Sierra.
* Drier conditions Friday and Saturday with more isolated shower
  activity. Another system brings showers back to many areas Sunday
  into Monday next week.
* Below normal temperatures through Saturday with freezes and
  possible morning fog in Sierra valleys. Gradually warming
  temperatures next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
* Slow moving cold upper trough coupled with above normal moisture
  will yield widespread showers with embedded t-storms across the
  region today and Thursday. Greater than 60% chances of a wetting
  rain today (0.1") in the NBM, with less tomorrow, closer to 20-
  40%.
* Storm motions in most areas are such that flash flooding is a low
  but not zero risk, with HREF showing max precip on the order of
  0.5 to 0.75". That being said, HREF is showing potential for 1-2"
  storms today in NE Cal closer to WPC marginal risk of flash
  flooding. With the cold temps aloft, hail is a good bet today and
  tomorrow, especially large accumulations of small hail. Max wind
  gust potential is on the order of 30-40 MPH, so not the big
  downdraft days of summer.
* With cool temperatures aloft, NBM indicating rain-snow lines down
  to around 9,500` today and tomorrow. So that could yield a light
  accumulation of snow in the Sierra for higher peaks, especially
  under heavier showers. Backcountry folks will want to prepare for
  rapid changes in weather and cold/wet conditions.
* Smoke in the Eastern Sierra will remain a risk the rest of this
  week depending on Garnet Fire activity and precip the fire
  receives. Latest RRFS/HRRR Smoke models bring another round of
  smoke into the Eastern Sierra later today and tonight, but
  trending less robust with smoke transport for tomorrow.
* Trough moves out Friday-Saturday with drier conditions and more
  isolated shower chances. Morning freezes and fog in the Sierra
  valleys are likely, especially if skies clear at night.
* Modest Pacific storm projected to landfall in the Pac NW Sunday-
  Monday, and that could kick some showers down to our latitudes.
  Right now the odds of wetting rains are generally 20% or less and
  mainly the Tahoe, the N Sierra, and NE California. NBM showing
  snow lines dipping to 9,000 feet Monday.
-Chris
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will be the main concern through the
afternoon for all terminals, but best chances (40-60%) exist at KTRK-
KTVL and KRNO-KCXP-KMEV. At KRNO, there is higher confidence that
storm impacts are most likely in the 20-22Z timeframe. Additional
thunderstorms will be possible thereafter (until around 03Z),
although there is greater uncertainty. For other terminals, the 20-
00Z timeframe will serve as the best opportunity for thunderstorm
impacts. Thunderstorm activity is expected to end around 03-04Z, but
light to moderate showers may linger overnight.
There is the potential for FG/FZFG to develop at KTRK tonight,
inducing periods of IFR conditions between 10Z and 15Z. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected again Thursday afternoon.
-Salas
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion