Vada, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

571
FXUS63 KJKL 240040 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
840 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring times of
  soaking rains this week. While beneficial for the drought, this
  rain could cause localized flash flooding, especially on
  Wednesday.
- A few thunderstorms on Wednesday could become strong, with
  damaging wind gusts as the main threat. The potential for these
  storms will depend on how much the atmosphere can destabilize
  during the day.
- A wet and unsettled pattern will continue through Friday before
  cooler and drier, fall-like weather arrives for the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2025
00Z sfc analysis shows an area of low pressure working into
Kentucky from the southwest. This is pushing another round of
showers and storms into the region from the west. Look for this to
overtake much of eastern Kentucky towards midnight on its trek
east. The latest high resolution CAMs show a bit of a lull in
activity through the early morning hours before another round is
expected to develop and target the Cumberland Valley. Currently,
under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures are running in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Meanwhile, amid southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph,
dewpoints are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Have
updated the forecast to add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids and also to update the PoPs and thunder chances
with the latest CAMs timing. These adjustments have been sent to
the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and
SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2025
A complex surface analysis is underway across the CONUS, with
multiple disturbances impacting the Lower 48. The first is a surface
low centered over central Ontario, with an associated weak
stationary front extending southwestward into the Central Plains. A
second, more influential, surface low is tracking northeastward out
of central Oklahoma. This low has an eastward-extending stationary
boundary into West Tennessee and a cold front oriented southwestward
back toward the Four Corners. Locally, weak surface high pressure
prevails; however, sufficient upper-level forcing is present to
favor widespread cloud cover and the redevelopment of showers,
particularly north of the Mountain Parkway and along the I-64
corridor.
The upper-level flow pattern is consistent with the surface
features. At H5, a closed upper-level low is favoring the Ontario
surface low. However, the dominant feature is a positively-tilted
longwave trough that covers much of the States east of the Rockies.
The Oklahoma surface low is located at the base of this trough. The
local forecast area, however, is under a regime of quasi-zonal flow
with weak perturbations and vorticity maxima moving through. These
perturbations are the primary drivers for the redevelopment of
showers and storms this afternoon. Widespread cloud cover is
limiting the amount of instability, thereby restricting the
potential for stronger storm development. As a result, the SPC has
placed the area under a General Thunder category. The extensive
cloud cover has also limited surface heating, with temperatures only
climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s, which will likely be the
daytime high. Showers and storms will increase in coverage from
isolated to scattered through the remainder of the afternoon, before
dissipating toward the overnight. This will lead to a mostly quiet
night with lows falling into the low to mid-60s.
The Oklahoma surface low is expected to approach the area Wednesday
morning. The stationary boundary will lift northward as a warm
front, bringing the first round of showers and storms early in the
day. Due to the early timing, the severe weather threat is low.
However, a hydrologic threat will exist as PWs values reach 1.75
inches and a favorable, skinny CAPE profile supports efficient
rainfall. This may lead to periods of heavy rain during the morning.
The surface low will track through the Commonwealth throughout the
day, leading to continued threats for showers and thunderstorms. The
severe weather threat remains largely limited as the instability
ingredient will be lacking despite increased shear and the
development of a LLJ Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, a
strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out, a threat also
highlighted by the SPCs Day 2 Marginal Risk. The hydrologic threat
will redevelop in the afternoon and evening as CAPE profiles become
even more conducive to efficient rainfall. Furthermore, PW values
will increase to 1.90 inches, lending more credence to an enhanced
heavy rainfall event. This threat is highlighted by the WPCs Day 2
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Showers and storms will persist
through the end of the forecast period before a cold front is
expected to pass early in the long-term period.
The forecast period will be highlighted by periods of showers and
storms, some of which could be strong and bring gusty winds. The
most significant threat will be the potential for heavy rainfall
through Thursday. Otherwise, high temperatures will be in the upper
70s to low 80s, with overnight lows in the low to mid-60s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2025
For Thursday, a positive upper trough will move into the area with
jet dynamics producing fronto-genetic forcing along an approaching
frontal boundary. A band of showers and storms will move across the
region producing heavy rains with greatest potential of flooding
near the KY/VA and KY/TN statelines. Severe threat is marginal and
dependent on any breaks in the cloud to enhance instability.
Ensemble composite analysis shows best CAPE/SHEAR across the far
south/southeast sections, southward into the Tennessee valley.
For the extended period from Friday through early next week shows a
large difference in solutions from the deterministic GFS and ECMWF.
Based this period on the Ensemble Cluster Analysis solution which
pulls a positive tilted upper trough across the region Friday which
becomes quasi-stationary over the southeast/eastern United States.
For Friday, frontal boundary will be east of the area with enough
wrap-around moisture to produce a low chance of showers near the
KY/VA stateline. Otherwise, plenty of low-level moisture with mostly
cloudy sky.
For Saturday, the near stationary trough axis across the eastern
United States with wrap-around moisture continuing to produce a
chance of showers especially near the KY/VA stateline with sky cover
varying from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. Sky becomes mostly
clear Saturday night allowing for good radiational cooling
conditions so will modify the mins for the valley/ridge temperature
differences.
For Sunday and Monday, upper trough axis remains east/southeast of
the area with the region under northerly/northeast flow. Partly
cloudy to mostly clear sky with mostly dry conditions anticipated.
Ensembles/deterministic models hint at possible inverted surface
trough across the area so can not rule out a shower near the KY/VA
and KY/TN stateline due to the proximity of the upper
trough/wrap- around moisture/limited instability. For Tuesday,
persistent and weakening upper trough over the southeast United
States. Confidence is too low to include a chance of showers and
expect dry conditions.
Sky remains mostly clear to partly cloudy at night allowing for good
radiational cooling conditions so will modify the mins for the
valley/ridge temperature differences.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2025
VFR conditions are noted across all TAF sites with this issuance.
We are currently in a lull before the next round of activity is
expected to move in towards midnight. A PROB30 for storms is in
effect through 08-10Z Wednesday morning. Deteriorating conditions
will then be the rule during the pre-dawn hours as a warm front
lifts north through the area. Showers and thunderstorms, coupled
with low CIGs and poor visibility, will lead to near LIFR, IFR
and MVFR conditions for much of the remainder of the period. Winds
will be south at 5 kts for much of the next 24 hours; however,
gusty and erratic breezes accompany any thunderstorm.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion