Valley Center, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

279
FXUS63 KICT 190815
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
315 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry today with storm chances returning tonight into Saturday
  morning and again for Saturday night into Sunday.
- Cool and unsettled weather through much of the upcoming week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A shortwave trough was situated over the Northern Plains early this
morning. A pv anomaly is progged to rotate around this trough and
into the Central Plains this afternoon and evening while the
mid/upper trough progresses slowly east/southeastward. The airmass
is progged to remain uncapped and a rogue storm opr two may be
possible late this afternoon but better chances are expected to
arrive this evening and tonight as a robust LLJ noses intyo central
and south central Kansas. This is expected to aid overnight
development over much of the area. 30-40 knots of deep layer shear
and MUCAPE in the 500-1000 J/KG range may allow for some strong or
marginally severe storms with large hail. The highest probabilities
for storms may remain along and north of a line from near Russell to
McPherson to Chanute. Meanwhile, light winds and clear conditions
combined with moist soils have resulted in narrow T/TD spreads early
this morning and some patchy fogt is anticipated, especially over the
Flint Hills.
Sat-Sun...Another shortwave trough is progged to emerge from the
Rockies on Saturday bringig additional chances for showers and
storms to the area after only a brief break. Storms may linger into
early Sunday but confidence in the timing of the shortwave trough
remains farily low at this time. Clouds and precipitation will allow
temperatures to remain seasonable through the period with highs
mainly in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s.
Mon-Thu...Unsettled weather conditions may linger through much of
the upcoming week as a mean trough remains situated over the central
CONUS bringing multiple opporutnities for wetting rain through the
week. Seasonable temperatures are also anticipated through the period
with highs in the 70s/around 80 and lows in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period for central and
south-central Kansas sites. Patchy fog may lead to brief MVFR
visibility early this morning at CNU. Southerly winds between
5-10 knots and clear skies are then expected through the evening
hours. Clouds will increase from the west after 00Z with
precipitation chances ticking up just beyond the forecast
period.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AMD/TOP
AVIATION...AMD

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion