Van Alstyne, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

882
FXUS64 KFWD 021109
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
609 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet but warm weather continues into next week. Rain chances
  remain 10% or less.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A weak disturbance moving through the Southern Plains has tapped
into a little mid level moisture to produce some clouds and a few
showers. All of this activity is expected to remain north of the
Red River this morning.
Dunn
Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Friday Night/
Clear skies, light winds, and relatively warm conditions will
continue through Friday as mid level ridging remains in place
across the Southern Plains. A weak disturbance will dig southward
around the eastern periphery of the ridge on Friday and meander
across the northwest Gulf and coastal Louisiana into the weekend.
While this system likely won`t have any major impacts to our
weather, we`ll start to see an uptick in moisture across our
southeast counties and perhaps an isolated shower or two. Rain
chances will remain less than 10% through Friday night.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1239 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025/
/Saturday through Wednesday/
The upper disturbance across the northern Gulf will gradually
shift southwestward through the beginning of the week while
troughing becomes more pronounced across the western CONUS. This
will allow a better fetch of Gulf moisture northward into North
Texas through Tuesday. While large scale forcing for ascent will
be negligible, we`ll still see an increase in scattered afternoon
showers mainly across far east and southeast Texas and we`ll
include some low PoPs during peak heating. Otherwise, rain chances
will generally remain low to near zero through the first half of
next week while temperatures continue to top out in the upper 80s
and lower 90s. There is some indication that a weak front may try
to push southward into the region beyond Wednesday and could be
accompanied by a slight increase in rain chances. Until then, warm
and dry conditions will persist.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
VFR will prevail through the period with easterly winds 5 to 7 kt.
No significant aviation concerns are expected through tonight.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  70  91  67  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                91  67  90  65  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               90  65  89  61  86 /   0   5   0   0   0
Denton              90  65  91  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            91  66  91  62  88 /   0   5   0   0   0
Dallas              93  70  92  67  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             91  65  90  62  88 /   0   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           93  68  91  65  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              93  66  90  63  88 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       93  64  92  63  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion