Vance, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

022
FXUS64 KEWX 031130
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
630 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fair weather remains with slightly above average temperatures
  and low (0-20%) rain chances over the next 7 days, with no
  significant impacts expected
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Sub-tropical ridging gradually erodes into the weekend as a weak
upper level low slowly begins to establish across the northern Gulf
coast states/waters. This area of low pressure looks to help advance
some slightly greater moisture into Texas. We`ll note that the
latest short term guidance and mesoanalysis does indicate that a far
outer region of higher PWATs actually makes it`s way into the area
by this afternoon. This may be enough to help generate isolated
showers, mainly for locations along and east of highway 281. PWATs
on Saturday afternoon do not look to be quite as high and look to be
less favorable for spotty shower activity. Expect for the afternoon
temperatures to remain above average but will not be quite as warm
as the last few days. This afternoon looks to trend partly cloudy
while Saturday afternoon trends more towards mostly sunny skies
compared to partly cloudy. Overnight lows also start to tick
slightly milder with most locations ranging in the mid 60s to near
70 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
The upper level low across the upper Gulf coast lingers into early
next week but looks to potentially weaken and stretch out over time.
The stretching out of the system`s moisture and the slight increase
in the onshore flow into Texas should help to draw some additional
low-level moisture inland into our region. It could be enough to
generate low end PoPs across portions of the region each afternoon
from Monday through Wednesday. Additionally, upper level moisture
from a system in the Eastern Pacific along with a front entering
into north Texas from late Tuesday into Wednesday could factor in
some as well. Lastly, we`ll also monitor a deeper pool of moisture
to the south across the Bay of Campeche from midweek onward, but the
majority of guidance continues to keep this moisture confined to our
south. Otherwise, mid-level ridging starts to re-establish towards
the end of the period and this could result in our low end rain
chances drying up. Otherwise, conditions overall are to remain warm
with slightly above average temperatures with increased mugginess
and cloud cover, including some morning stratus.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR flying conditions are expected today through Saturday morning.
ISOLD SHRA are possible around the I-35 sites this afternoon into
early evening, however PROBs (15%) are too to mention. There is a
potential for lower CIGs/VSBYs early to mid Saturday morning,
however, chances at the sites (10%) are too low to mention. There
are higher chances (30-50%) over the Hill Country and the Winter
Garden regions. Light and VRBL winds overnight to early morning
mix to NE to SE 5 to 10 KTs midday through evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              94  69  92  69 /  20  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  65  92  67 /  20  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  66  91  66 /  20  20   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            90  66  88  66 /  10  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           94  71  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        92  66  90  66 /  20  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             94  67  91  67 /  10  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  65  92  66 /  20  20   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  66  92  67 /  20  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  68  90  69 /  20  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           95  70  93  70 /  20  20   0   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...04

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion