Vaughn, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

313
FXUS65 KABQ 282337 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
537 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
  impact New Mexico through this evening. Some storms will be
  capable of heavy rainfall but the flash flood threat is
  greatest over and below the burn scars in the Ruidoso area.
  Across south central New Mexico, gusty and erratic winds as well
  as hail will also be a concern.
- Storm coverage will decrease on Monday. Storms that do develop
  will be focused along and east of the Continental Divide. Flash
  flooding will remain a concern around Ruidoso.
- The end of the monsoon looks to be on schedule as dry and
  warmer conditions are expected Tuesday through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 124 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
An upper level low pressure system that has been stalled over the
CA/AZ border will open into a trough and exit northeastward across
the Four Corners tonight through Monday. It will continue to draw
subtropical moisture northward across NM with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms until midnight, then decreasing
coverage of storms during the overnight hours, but some storms
will probably linger into the early morning Monday along and south
of a line from Tucumcari to Socorro. Some drier air will begin to
filter over the area from the west on Monday, when scattered to
isolated showers and thunderstorms will return from the
continental divide eastward, except for numerous cells along the
central mountain chain. Some of the storms this afternoon and
early evening will be capable of producing over 1 inch of rain per
hour with a continued risk of flash flooding, especially from
Ruidoso to Roswell. A few severe storms will also be possible
early this evening over central and south central NM, where the
main risk will be large hail and damaging winds.
PWATs will begin to trend downward on Monday while remaining well
above average for this time of year. The threat of flash flooding
will decrease some, but antecedent moisture may make up the
difference in places that receive heavy rainfall today, causing
the risk for flash flooding to continue. With this forecast
package, we will issue another Flash Flood Watch for the Ruidoso
area burn scars on Monday.
Patchy fog and low clouds are likely tonight until mid morning
Monday, especially in locations that receive heavy rainfall this
afternoon and tonight. With this forecast package we included the
mention of fog in the forecast from south central to east central
areas, but the evening and nigh shifts will probably update the
forecast to include fog in other places with saturated ground;
especially where skies clear tonight enabling effective
radiational cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 124 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
In the wake of the upper level trough, drier air will filter over
the forecast area from the southwest. Another shortwave trough
crossing the Great Basin and central Rockies may trigger a few
light rain showers and thunderstorms mainly over NM`s northern and
western mountains on Tuesday as high temperatures trend a few to
5 degrees warmer than Monday`s cool readings. Then,a ridge of high
pressure will build northward over New Mexico during the middle of
the week, causing high temperatures to climb as much as 11
degrees above 30-year averages by Thursday. Southwest winds will
become gusty on Friday and Saturday as an upper level trough
passes eastward over the central Rockies strengthening the flow
aloft over NM. A potent surface trough will also develop in the
lee of the southern Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to progress
northeastward along a general area from KFMN to KSAF to KALM this
hour. Localized MVFR conditions will accompany this activity with
lightning stretching out 10-30 miles from each cluster. Continued
shower and thunderstorm activity is favored thru 03Z to 06Z in
these same general areas, notably from KABQ southeastward to KROW
before waning. Light prevailing winds and slow to clear skies will
remain overnight into Monday morning. Abundant low level moisture
may result in some patchy fog and mist early Monday morning, but
confidence is too low to include cat reductions at any TAF
terminal given unknowns about higher level cloud cover. Another
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor the
central highlands and areas along the central mountain chain
Monday afternoon, with general storm tracks to the NE and E.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
After a wet start to the week in many locations, dry air will
filter over the state starting Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure
will build northward over NM midweek, but minimum humidities are
forecast to remain above 15 percent areawide. Southwest winds will
become gusty Friday and Saturday afternoons, with the strongest
gusts likely to reach 15-25 mph over the mountains and northeast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  74  53  76 /  30  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  40  71  41  72 /  30  30   5   5
Cuba............................  44  68  46  71 /  60  30   5  10
Gallup..........................  42  72  45  73 /  30  10   0   0
El Morro........................  43  69  46  71 /  40  10   5   5
Grants..........................  44  71  45  76 /  50  20   5  10
Quemado.........................  43  72  46  73 /  20  10   0   5
Magdalena.......................  49  68  51  73 /  40  40   5  10
Datil...........................  44  68  46  71 /  30  30   5  10
Reserve.........................  44  76  46  78 /  10  20   0   0
Glenwood........................  49  80  51  82 /  10  20   0   0
Chama...........................  39  66  39  66 /  30  50   0  20
Los Alamos......................  48  67  49  69 /  60  40   5  20
Pecos...........................  45  68  45  69 /  60  50  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  44  69  44  70 /  30  50   0   5
Red River.......................  36  59  36  60 /  30  50   0   5
Angel Fire......................  32  63  31  65 /  30  50   0   5
Taos............................  43  71  42  73 /  30  40   5   5
Mora............................  40  65  40  69 /  40  60   5  10
Espanola........................  48  74  48  76 /  60  40  10   5
Santa Fe........................  48  68  50  70 /  60  50  10   5
Santa Fe Airport................  47  71  48  73 /  60  40  10   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  74  57  76 /  70  30  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  75  56  78 /  70  30  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  77  55  79 /  60  30  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  75  56  77 /  70  20  10   0
Belen...........................  52  76  52  79 /  60  30  10   0
Bernalillo......................  52  76  55  79 /  70  20  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  50  76  52  79 /  60  30  10   0
Corrales........................  53  77  56  79 /  70  20  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  52  76  53  78 /  60  30  10   0
Placitas........................  52  71  53  74 /  70  30  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  53  76  56  78 /  70  20  10   0
Socorro.........................  54  78  55  81 /  60  40  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  47  68  48  71 /  70  30  10   5
Tijeras.........................  48  69  51  72 /  70  30  10   5
Edgewood........................  45  69  46  73 /  70  40  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  44  71  44  74 /  70  40  10   5
Clines Corners..................  46  66  46  70 /  70  50  10   0
Mountainair.....................  47  70  47  73 /  60  50  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  47  69  47  72 /  60  60  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  52  71  51  75 /  60  70  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  49  64  46  68 /  70  70  20  10
Capulin.........................  47  69  44  73 /  20  30   5   0
Raton...........................  47  72  43  76 /  30  40   0   0
Springer........................  47  74  43  78 /  30  40   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  45  67  44  72 /  50  60  10   5
Clayton.........................  53  76  51  79 /  10  20   5   0
Roy.............................  50  71  48  76 /  30  40  10   0
Conchas.........................  54  78  52  81 /  40  40  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  52  73  49  77 /  50  50  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  53  76  51  81 /  40  30  10   0
Clovis..........................  57  78  54  83 /  20  20   0   0
Portales........................  57  78  54  83 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  56  76  52  80 /  50  40   5   0
Roswell.........................  59  79  55  83 /  50  40   5   0
Picacho.........................  53  74  49  78 /  60  60   5   0
Elk.............................  50  71  47  76 /  60  70   5   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ218-219-221>223.
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226-238>240.
Flood Watch Monday afternoon for NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...24

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion