Veradale, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

051
FXUS66 KOTX 060732
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1232 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unsettled weather returning to the region over the weekend and
  into next week with increasing threat for showers and
  thunderstorms.
- Gusty outflow winds to 40 mph possible near thunderstorms
  Saturday evening and night.
- Temperatures trending cooler heading into this weekend and
  next week.
- Smoke and haze expected to continue through the weekend
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Smoke and haze is expected to continue over the weekend. The
threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase this evening
and into Sunday. Gusty outflow winds are possible near any
thunderstorms. Additional rain chances will arrive next week
with cooler temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today-Sunday: Today will start off rather benign with the
upper-level ridge axis still holding along the WA/ID border.
Main weather impacts will widespread smoke and haze as boundary
layer winds remain light. High temperatures will be near to
slightly warmer than those experienced on Friday. The air mass
will support 90s but the smoke and haze will likely keep many
areas from reaching their full potential and I expect another
messy patchwork of 80s to lower 90s depending where the smoke is
most impactful. The first band of moisture and potential
showers will lift into southern WA this morning with several hi-
res models supporting some activity brushing Moses Lake,
Wenatchee, and Steven Pass. Can`t rule out isolated lightning
but the forcing looks weak.
As we go into the afternoon and overnight periods, a more organized
upper-level wave will track northward through the Inland NW
with 20-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms. These
probabilities have come up compared to 24 hours ago. Coverage of
potential lightning is expected to be isolated for North Idaho,
Eastern WA, and north-central WA and scattered for the Central
Cascades and into the southwestern Basin. Consequently, red flag
warnings have been hoisted for these areas for abundant
lightning and potential for new fire starts. Any showers or
storms region-wide will bring the potential for gusty outflow
winds of 25-35 mph and locally around 40 mph. This is showing up
on numerous cams models for various locations and does not seem
to die off much even in the overnight periods as the bands
lifts northward. This is very concerning for ongoing fires, new
starts, or weekend recreationist in the outdoors. Be sure to tie
down tents and awnings. Winds of this nature will be short-
lived but could be intense at times.
By Sunday, a more robust and organized shortwave swings into the
region with a negative tilt. With ample heating and
destabilization, the late afternoon timing of this wave raises
concern for a few stronger, more organized thunderstorm cells.
Model CAPES vary from 800-1200 J/kg with increasing effective
shear of 15-25kts. Dry sub-cloud layers and DCAPES of 1000+ J/kg
once again suggest potential for strong, gusty outflow winds
near thunderstorms and would not rule out hail within the precip
shafts. Thinking two areas will be more active, 1) north of a
line from Wenatchee to Spokane to Sandpoint and 2) south of a
line from Kellogg to Pullman to Walla Walla. Convection can be
tricky and outflow boundaries traveling in between these areas
can throw off the forecast as we have seen in many cases this
summer. Folks with outdoor plans are urged to keep an eye to the
sky. Convection on Sunday looks to be surface based and
generally isolated to possibly scattered in nature. Going into
Sunday night, another midlevel wave lifts and has the potential
to keep elevated showers and thunderstorms ongoing for some
areas.
Monday-Thursday: Nearly 100% of the ensembles support a pattern
change over the Northwest with a broad upper low slowly
migrating through the region. This leads to high confidence for
cooler temperatures and higher humidities. Just about every day
from Monday through Wednesday carries some degree of
precipitation chances. Currently, the highest probabilities for
wetting rains arrives Monday night and Tuesday (40-60% chance)
with scattered coverage of showers and storms, broad synoptic
lift, and modest atmospheric moisture. Coverage on each Monday
and Wednesday looks more spotty and isolated to scattered in
coverage.
Winds will be on the rise for this period as the air mass cools
but the transition is not sudden indicated widespread
breeziness vs a wind event.
The low will continue to spin to our south Thursday and slowly
migrate out of the region Friday into weekend as another trof
approaches the PacNW. Not seeing a lot of changes to gain
confidence in the details of this system but trends are leaning
to this system splitting and bulk of the energy tracking inland
south of the region. Energy pivoting around system will usher
chances of showers and thunderstorms but widespread
precipitation is not expected. Temperatures will rebound some
but remain closer to seasonal averages in this scenario. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Visibility is expected to be restricted from wildfire
smoke regionwide. Visibility is expected to range from 4-7
miles for most of Central and Eastern Washington and north
Idaho, but areas near fires including Colville will see
restrictions as low as 1 mile. A disturbance lifting northward
will bring a small threat (10-30%) for high based showers
between Moses Lake and Wenatchee 15-19z. After 00z, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will become an increasing aviation
risk starting over southern WA and the lower Idaho Panhandle
00-04z and drifting northward 04-09z. Gusty outflow winds to 40
mph possible near any storms.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Low confidence in precise visibilities at the TAF sites from
haze and smoke. Showers 15-19z between Moses Lake and Wenatchee
have a 10% chance of producing lightning but this comes with low
confidence. There is moderate confidence for scattered
thunderstorms 00-06z and beyond. /sb
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        89  63  86  58  82  55 /   0  20  20  20  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  86  63  86  59  83  57 /   0  20  20  20  10  40
Pullman        90  58  82  53  81  52 /  10  20  30  30  10  60
Lewiston       94  67  89  63  87  61 /  10  30  40  30  10  50
Colville       87  53  86  49  82  47 /   0  20  40  40  30  40
Sandpoint      86  58  83  54  80  52 /   0  20  30  30  20  40
Kellogg        87  63  84  60  82  57 /   0  20  30  40  10  40
Moses Lake     94  60  87  56  82  55 /  20  40  40  10  10  50
Wenatchee      95  67  85  62  81  61 /  30  40  50  20  10  60
Omak           90  65  88  60  83  59 /  10  30  40  30  20  40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
     Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
     Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday
     for East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-Foothills
     of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Waterville
     Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
     Panhandle.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion