Veterans Admin Fac, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

257
FXUS64 KBMX 131158
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
658 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 107 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
We`ll have plenty of sunshine to enjoy this weekend with the
expansive ridge dominating the weather pattern. Continental flow
will continue to provide dry air to the region with widespread
subsidence promoting stable conditions with relatively light winds.
Temperature trends have mostly begun to stabilize, so highs will be
similar to yesterday ranging from the lower 90s west to upper 80s
east. High surface pressure extending southwest through the Mid-
Atlantic into Central Alabama will promote cool northeasterly flow
tonight with lows in the 60s.
86/Martin
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 107 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
By Monday, guidance indicates a slight variation in the pattern with
the development of a closed upper-level low over the Mid-Atlantic
region. This feature may retrograde slightly to the west which could
introduce some moisture to the area towards the middle of next week,
especially in our east, but the overall model consensus at this time
is maintaining the dominant ridge axis centered over the Mississippi
River through at least Wednesday, so long-term PoPs will remain
below 10% for the time being, and hot conditions are expected with
daily highs in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s. There are signals that
the ridge axis will finally begin to break down towards the end of
the week in response to longwave troughing extending south from
Canada into the Central Plains.
86/Martin
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
A VFR forecast is expected for the next 24 hours at the TAF sites
thanks to surface high pressure across E Conus. Winds will be
generally light and variable. MGM/AUO may see enough mixing to see
E-NE winds 4-8kts.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Expansive ridging will continue to promote a hot and dry weather
pattern through the weekend and into next week. Min RHs will drop
into the 30-40% range for most of the area again this afternoon
and this trend will persist into next week. Although values are
currently forecast to remain above critical thresholds, drying
soils will likely lead to expanding drought conditions. Winds
should remain generally light from the northeast with occasional
gusts due to daytime mixing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  60  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    88  61  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  90  65  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  92  65  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      91  64  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      87  62  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  89  63  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        87  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....86/Martin
AVIATION...08

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion