Vincent, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

184
FXUS64 KBMX 191837
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
137 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2025
We`re seeing increased development of showers and storms along and
north of the I-22 corridor early this afternoon as a 500mb vort
max, along with a strong outflow boundary from previous morning
storms moves into northwest Alabama. What was a bore wave moving
east of Memphis early this morning has now moved into northeast
Mississippi and northwest Alabama, with scattered showers and
storms developing out ahead of it. A few stronger storms have
developed near Tupelo, slowly moving towards Lamar and Marion
Counties. Best rain chances will continue to exist along and west
of the I-65 corridor through the rest of the afternoon, as plenty
of dry air remains aloft over eastern Alabama and Georgia. For
those who just happen to be underneath one of the storms this
afternoon, you can expect brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and
cloud-to-ground lightning. As for the stronger storms, we`ll watch
those over the next few hours as there`s plenty of DCAPE to go
around to produce downburst-type winds. Otherwise, hot and dry
conditions will continue for the rest of the CWA with
temperatures rising into the low and middle 90s.
A few isolated storms will remain possible through the early
evening hours before diminishing during the overnight hours. Under
mostly clear skies and calm winds, overnight lows will remain mild
in the 60s. Following the passage of the upper level shortwave
that will move into the Southern Appalachians by Saturday
afternoon, 700mb flow will become more westerly, transporting a
tad more moisture into the forecast area. Isolated to perhaps
scattered showers and storms remain in the forecast, with some
CAMs hinting at the best coverage across the northern half of the
CWA, along with the potential for orographically-triggered
convection as well. Our streak of hot temperatures will continue,
as highs top out in the mid 90s in most locations.
56/GDG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2025
The short-term trend will carry over into the long-term as well, as
mostly similar weather days expected into the new workweek. Shower
and thunderstorm chances may become slightly more suppressed by
Sunday, but even then, some scattered convection is possible.
Thankfully, the pattern may begin to break down by the middle of the
new workweek, as upper-level troughing begins to deepen over the
midwest. Both the GFS and the Euro eventually have a low pressure
working into the region, along with this deepening trough, but the
biggest question mark here remains timing. The Euro brings the low
in by Friday, where the GFS keeps it out until next weekend. For the
time being, it looks like the most likely scenario is rain chances
increasing by Tuesday, and remaining in the forecast into the
weekend as this low gets its act together.
/44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 137 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2025
VFR conditions are expected for a vast majority of the forecast
period. We`ll be on the lookout for scattered SHRA/TSRA
development across western Alabama that could briefly impact TCL,
BHM, and EET as we go into the afternoon hours. At this time, no
mention of any weather has been included in the TAFs, but wouldn`t
rule out the addition of a PROB30 or TEMPO to include TS at some
point. Chances are much lower at ASN, MGM, and AUO. If a storm
passes over a terminal, brief reductions in vis and variably gusty
winds will be the main aviation hazards. Prevailing winds will
remain light from the north and northwest this afternoon, becoming
calm or variable overnight. Light or variable winds will continue
during the day on Saturday.
56/GDG
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will continue to range in the 30-40% range through the
weekend, with low end rain chances remaining in the forecast.
Thankfully, more organized rain chances are possible later in the
week, but the scope of that remains to be seen. Otherwise, look for
drought conditions to persist across the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  94  64  93 /  10  20  20  10
Anniston    65  92  66  91 /   0  20  20   0
Birmingham  68  95  71  94 /  10  20  20  10
Tuscaloosa  68  96  69  95 /  20  20   0  10
Calera      67  95  69  94 /   0  20  10  10
Auburn      68  92  68  90 /   0  20  10   0
Montgomery  67  95  68  94 /   0  20   0   0
Troy        66  93  67  91 /   0  20   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION...56/GDG

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion