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Wadena, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

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FXUS63 KFGF 201752
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1252 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another quarter to half inch of rain across northeast North Dakota through Sunday morning as showers persist.

- Showers across northwest Minnesota through Sunday with another tenth to quarter inch expected.

&&

.UPDATE... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Additional showers developing along and just east of the Red River, and will continue into the afternoon. May get a bit of lightning activity with some weak (500-1000 J/kg) CAPE over the area, but impacts will be isolated as cells quickly come up and down.

UPDATE Issued at 1006 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Showers continue mainly across the northern Red River Valley, so made some very minor tweaks to POPs. Expecting some more showers and a few thunderstorms as the upper low wraps up over our area. Not much impact other than some soggy conditions and isolated lightning strikes. Some BR lingering in a few spots across the forecast area, but no locations under a mile so impacts minimal. Could get some more fog late tonight/Sunday morning on the backside of the low as clouds start to decrease, so included mention.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Rain beginning to fill back in across eastern North Dakota as expected along the inverted trough to the northwest of the surface low centered near Fargo. Areas of patchy fog with vis as low as 1 mile have been noted the last several hours but have been short lived enough in any given location to minimize impact thus no headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

...Synopsis...

A messy CONUS pattern continues with multiple shortwaves apparent in water vapor imagery. The recent driver of our weather, a wave now centered over Iowa continues to drift southeast amid weak northwest flow with another wave on its heels in southern Saskatchewan with an inverted trough between the two driving our lingering shower activity through the next two days. Subtle western ridging looks to build east over the rockies though westerly/northwest flow will remain across the northern plains through early next week with good cluster agreement on this evolution. Past Monday clusters then diverge on the subsequent shortwave progged to move into the plains with some taking it as far north as SD/southern MN and others through KS/NE. Overall this seems to have little bearing on any impacts with the worst case appearing to be some light rain in the mid week rather than predominant riding. Overall a quieter period once this weekend wetness ceases.

Weekend Rain....

While not particularly impressive in any aspect showers continue Saturday in eastern North Dakota and migrate east along the inverted trough stemming from the shortwave moving to the southeast in Iowa. A sfc low is also noted along this deformation zone which will help to focus showers with lapse rates today exceeding 7.0C/km at times in northwest Minnesota leading to some scattered thunder as a few hundred MUCAPE near the the low develops in the afternoon with peak heating. Should more cloud cover exist MUCAPE would be slight more limited but likely still greater than zero and simply reduce the areal extent of any thunder activity. Looking a an 80% chance for > 0.25" in northeast ND through Saturday night with a 50% for those same amounts in northwest MN through Sunday. There is a greater than 60% chance for all areas of more than 0.10 with most having a 80% chance or greater. So to spell it out simply rain continues for all with most seeing 0.10 and pockets of 0.25" or greater in Minnesota.

Looking forward to next week drier conditions do prevail with slightly above average temps. Average highs next week are in the mid to upper 60s and average lows in the lower 40s. Looking to be about 10 degrees warmer on both ends with mid level riding for the first half of the week followed by thermal ridging for the latter half as flow becomes more progressive and zonal beyond Wednesday. Less than a 10% chance for a wetting rain (0.10" or more) on any given day after this weekend meaning below average precip for the week and slightly above average temps will be the norm for this week. I`m sure farmers wont mind these this for a productive week as harvest begins to hit full speed in the Red River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings across most of the forecast area as showers and a few thunderstorms develop along and east of the Red River. Have shower/t-storm mention for all but KDVL, tapering off by late evening. Some improvement in conditions possible for a period this evening, but then back to IFR ceilings and some fog isn`t out of the question. For now, kept vis at 1SM for the lowest and will see how fog develops overnight. Some improvement to MVFR or even VFR by the end of the period. Winds will remain light and variable.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR/TT DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...JR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion

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