Wagontown, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

097
FXUS61 KPHI 240826
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
426 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will gradually track into the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night before stalling. The front may lift back north as a
warm front on Thursday night before another cold front passes
through late Friday and Friday night. Broad high pressure will then
approach from the west on Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Observations continue to indicate that fog and low stratus is
developing across the area, with the densest patches mainly
where it rained. Localized patches of dense fog possible through
the morning commute so take extra care while driving this
morning. Otherwise, lows will be in the low to mid 60s for
most, upper 50s in the southern Poconos.
Heading into the daytime hours, a slow-moving cold front will
slowly drag into the region before stalling across the central
part of the area. As a result, some scattered showers and storms
may developing beginning late this afternoon, most likely for
areas north of I-195 and the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Otherwise,
high temperatures this afternoon will be mainly in the upper 70s
to low 80s.
More focused development of showers and thunderstorms is
expected across the northern two- thirds of the region by late
this evening and continuing into the overnight hours. PoPs have
increased to around 60-80% with chances remaining around 40-50%
for the most southern areas. Areas north of I-195 and the
Pennsylvania Turnpike generally look to receive between 0.5 and
1.5 inches of rain through tonight, with localized areas of up
to 2-3 inches possible. Otherwise, overnight lows tonight will
dip into the 60s once again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The stationary boundary lifts back north as a warm front Thursday
morning ahead of the main surface low and associated cold front. As
a result, we will see our greatest chance (50-80%) for showers and
thunderstorms across the region on Thursday. Afternoon temperatures
will be more moderate thanks to more widespread rainfall with highs
only reaching the mid 70s to around 80 for much of the region. Areas
across the southern Delmarva that may not see the rain until later
in the afternoon and evening could warm into the mid 80s. Dew points
will remain elevated, making it an overall warm, muggy, and rainy
day. Combined precipitation totals Wednesday and Thursday will be
around 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible. The Storm
Prediction Center has also placed the region in a Marginal risk for
severe weather. Depending on how the system evolves through the day,
we could see MUCAPE values increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg with 0-
6km bulk shear increasing to 40 kts or more by the afternoon. That
said, if substantial cloud coverage lingers, the region will lack
sufficient destabilization across the region and greatly limit the
development of strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.
The cold front will gradually continue pushing offshore Friday and
into Friday night. Can`t fully rule out some lingering showers
during the day as a result, but overall it will be a drier day with
high pressure slowly building in from the west. Afternoon highs
remain in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows in the mid 50s to mid
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak surface low will develop along the stalled boundary just
south and east off the Mid Atlantic Coast. As a result, a few showers
may linger Saturday and Sunday with the greatest chances across
southern NJ and the Delmarva. Temperatures will be at or above
normal through the weekend.
What happens beyond Sunday and into early next week is yet to be
seen and highly uncertain. Broad high pressure will develop over the
center of the country, gradually building east with time. Eyes will
also be on the tropics as most global forecast guidance has been
consistent on developing a tropical cyclone somewhere over the
western Atlantic early next week with a cut-off upper level low over
the Deep South. How all these features interact with one another
will ultimately determine what kind of weather we encounter beyond
Sunday. More to come on this in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Early this morning...Sub-VFR conditions with either low stratus or
fog developing for most locations, especially where any rain fell.
Mainly IFR conditions expected but brief improvement to MVFR or
even VFR conditions possible at times. So the forecast for
tonight is low confidence. Winds will go light and variable.
Today...After sub-VFR conditions in the morning with lingering
fog/stratus, VFR conditions are expected there after. Southerly
winds around 5 knots or less. Moderate confidence.
Tonight...Sub-VFR conditions expected with showers likely
(60-80% chance) and a few thunderstorms possible (30-40%
chance). Southeast winds around 5 knots or less. Moderate
confidence.
Outlook...
Thursday through Thursday night...Sub-VFR conditions are expected at
times. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms, primarily
in the afternoon and evening hours. Patchy fog is also possible.
Friday through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions likely, especially early
Friday, before improving by the weekend. A chance of showers will
continue through Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Seas have diminished to less than 5 feet and the Small Craft
Advisory has been cancelled as a result.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the remainder of the period.
Southerly winds around 10-15 knots, with some gusts up to 20 knots
at times. Showers with a few thunderstorms likely (50-60% chance),
from late this evening into early Thursday Seas of 2-4 feet
throughout.
Outlook...
Thursday through Sunday...No marine headlines expected attm,
although we`ll keep an eye on Thursday night ahead of the cold
front. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms possible each day.
Rip Currents...
For Wednesday...a HIGH risk of rip currents is in place at all
beaches as a long period 12 second onshore swell from distant
Hurricane Gabrielle remains. Breaking waves of 2 to 4 feet with
shore parallel winds around 10-15 MPH or so. Rip Current
Statement was extended through Wednesday evening.
For Thursday...elected for a HIGH risk at all Jersey Shore
locations and MODERATE for Delaware. The onshore swell decreases
to around 10 seconds, with lower breaking waves around 2 to 3
feet. Winds will be around 10-20 MPH, mainly offshore for DE and
either shore parallel or slightly onshore in NJ depending on
your location. This could change and become a MODERATE at all
shore points, but confidence was not quite there to drop the
HIGH yet for the Jersey Shore.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NJZ014-024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...AKL
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...MJL
AVIATION...AKL/MJL
MARINE...AKL/MJL

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion