Waskish, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

008
FXUS63 KFGF 152012
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
312 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this
  afternoon and early evening over parts of north central
  Minnesota. There is a 1 out of 5 severe risk for that region.
- Isolated strong thunderstorms may develop in far southeast ND
  and west central MN Tuesday evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...Synopsis...
One mid/upper low is located over north central ND that is
responsible for scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. A second trailing mid/upper low over the Northern
Rockies is shown by a consensus of ensembles to slide east-southeast
and stall Tuesday into Thursday, resulting in a short lived Rex
block type pattern. Chances for showers and isolated (diurnal)
thunderstorms remain through the end the week due to this lingering
upper low, though better BL Tds and instability will remain well
south of our region after Tuesday lowering any severe risk
(supported by ensembled based ML systems). Deeper mid level moisture
advection will be in place though as this low pressure sits near or
partially over our CWA, with PWATs remaining over 1". This could
support periods of moderate or locally heavy rainfall at times,
though the probability for greater than 1" of 24hr QPF still remains
under 20% (based on NBM). Seasonal temperatures in the upper
60s/lower 70s return mid to late week. There is an eventual shift to
westerly zonal flow that lowers precipitation chances but also brings
warming temperatures back to above average values in mid 70s to
near 80 late next weekend into early next week.
...Severe thunderstorm potential through early evening...
A negatively tilted shortwave trough axis rounding the upper low in
ND is progressing northeast this afternoon, with the main theta-E
axis and better instability in our far northeast and already starting
to transition out of our immediate CWA. Effective shear in the 30-
40kt range is in place, and with daytime low level lapse rates
supporting initiation along the immediate convergence zone in
northwest MN ahead of the mid level trough axis. There is a window
for strong to severe convection near Roseau/Lake of the Woods
Counties through 5pm. Current trends seem to favor elevated parcels
in our CWA, though any surface based convection could benefit from
enough low level veering in shear profiles for a non zero tornado
risk. Otherwise, large hail to the size of quarters is the most
likely risk as this activity develops then moves out of our area.
It is worth noting, that while the threat for more robust/organized
convection is lower in the Devils Lake Basin, the proximity of the
mid level low and surface low has created a region of higher surface
vorticity and positive values of the non supercell tornado
parameter. Low level lapse rates have remain lower in our area due
to the stratus, so for now the threat for landspout type tornadoes is
low before sunset (then zero afterwards).
...Strong thunderstorm potential Tuesday evening...
As the first upper low transitions north, shortwave ridging may
remain in place for much of the day Tuesday before SW flow ahead of
the next upper low builds into SD and west central MN. A baroclinic
zone may develop near our southeast CWA and elevated instability
(1000-2000 J/KG) may be in place as weaker/disorganized forcing
begins to spread into the region. Shear profiles are much more
marginal with effective shear less than 30kt. However, if an elevated
thunderstorm were to develop hail greater than 0.5" may be a threat
during the evening hours Tuesday in our far south-southeast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
There is a lingering area of stratocumulus moving across
northeast ND with MVFR ceilings (localized IFR near KDVL) which
may spread into far northeast MN (KTVF) before lifting back to
VFR. This is along the leading edge of low pressure to the west
and is followed by scattered showers which should impact parts
of eastern ND and northwest MN through the afternoon. The best
chance for lightning activity (less than 30%) is over north
central MN later this afternoon and early evening. The
probability for lightning activity at TAF sites is too low for
inclusion.
Gusty south winds continue through the afternoon gradually
decreasing during the evening as daytime mixing ends and
surface gradient decreases. The shift in surface low pressure
eventually results in west-southest winds developing Tuesday
morning in northeast ND (less than 12kt).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion