Wave Crest, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

085
FXUS61 KOKX 071857
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
257 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in tonight. The high remains in control
through Tuesday, then an offshore wave of low pressure passes
nearby Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cold front will approach
on Thursday and pass through Thursday night, followed by
Canadian high pressure into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure builds in tonight. The right rear quadrant of the
jet streak that was providing the lift behind the offshore cold
pushes east, so any lingering showers over eastern areas will
end a few hours after sunset across the Twin Forks of Long
Island and southeastern CT. Showers could end an hour or so
earlier than is currently forecast.
Clearing will also occur from west to eat tonight, but there may
be enough clouds across eastern areas to preclude optimal
radiational cooling conditions, thus the coolest temperatures
will occur across the Lower Hudson Valley and inland southern
CT, with lows in the upper 40s. In fact, some lower 40s are
possible in some isolated areas. 50s are expected elsewhere,
even into NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure continues to build into the region through Monday
night. The high begins to weaken on Tuesday into Tuesday night as a
wave of low pressure forms to our south along a stalled frontal
boundary. Therefore, dry and cooler than average conditions are
expected during this time frame. Better night for radiational
cooling across the entire forecast area Monday night. Lows
around 40 are possible in the outlying areas, with isolated
areas possibly dipping into the upper 30s (MAV guidance for MGJ
is 40). Highs Monday and Tuesday will be similar, in the lower
to middle 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
* Mainly dry and cool through the period. Late week cold frontal
  passage.
* Low chance for rain along coastal areas late Tuesday into
  Wednesday.
Weak upper troughing over the mid section of the country and some
retrogression of the western Atlantic ridge will allow an offshore
frontal wave to come close enough to warrant a low chance of rain
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The aforementioned upper trough
then sends a cold front across the area Thursday night. High
pressure then builds in through next weekend.
Temperatures will generally remain below normal through the period
with the exception being Thursday ahead of a cold front, where highs
will be right around normal.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds in from the west through the TAF
period.
Rain showers remain mainly east of NYC terminals this afternoon.
These should taper off late this afternoon into early this
evening. Dry conditions expected thereafter.
Mainly MVFR to VFR conditions for this afternoon will be all VFR
by this evening. All VFR expected thereafter through the rest of
the TAF period. One exception would be KGON where there is some
IFR stratus this afternoon and for this same terminal, perhaps
some MVFR stratus may linger a few hours later into this evening,
around 01-02Z Monday.
Winds have decreased in speed and become more variable in
direction. A general W-N flow is forecast much of the TAF
period. However, some sea breeze formation is expected for KJFK
and KLGA late this afternoon into early this evening with more
southerly winds. Wind speeds stay near 5-10 kt through the TAF
period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End time of MVFR could be 1-2 hours off from TAF.
Categories could fluctuate between VFR and MVFR at times this
afternoon.
Sea breeze possible at KEWR with more SE wind 21-23Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. E gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Wednesday: Potential for MVFR in -SHRA, mainly east of NYC
terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR.
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions prevail through at least Monday night, then
ocean waters could see wind gusts approaching 25 kt Tuesday and
Tuesday night as easterly winds increase. Seas could build to 5
ft Tuesday.
Easterly winds will continue to produce SCA seas on the ocean waters
through Wednesday. Gusts are forecast to fall just short of 25 kt
during this time. The pressure gradient weakens behind the low
Wednesday night into Thursday with sub-SCA conditions expected.
However, a strengthening northerly flow behind a cold front Thursday
night could produce gusts near 25 kt.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems expected for the next few days.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a moderate risk for rip current development today with
a S to SE swell of around 3 ft at 7 seconds along with offshore
winds. The swell height diminishes a little for Monday with
light easterly winds. A moderate risk is anticipated once again.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion