Weaverville, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

899
FXUS62 KGSP 251800
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area Friday then stalls along the Carolina
coast this weekend keeping unsettled weather over the area. A
tropical system may impact the area early next week but this is
highly uncertain for now. Temperatures near normal Friday drop below
normal this weekend into the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 pm Thursday: Upper trough extending from the Arklatex
into the Great Lakes will separate into two distinct features by
tomorrow, as the northern part of the trough accompanies jet max off
the northeast coast by the end of Friday, while the southern part
of the trough evolves into an upper low as it begins to butt heads
with a strong anticyclone over the western Atlantic. This pattern
will maintain deep southerly flow and ample moisture across the
CWA through and an overall pattern supportive of deep convective
development through the period.
Morning showers and extensive cloud cover have acted to limit
instability across much of the area this afternoon. However,
some clearing along the southern and western periphery of the
CWA has allowed sbCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg to become realized in
those areas. Isolated convection is developing in the vicinity of
differential heating boundary between cloudier/less cloudy areas,
and coverage is expected to expand through the afternoon...with
diff heating and SSW upslope flow being the main impetus for
initiation. Deep layer shear of 25-35 kts will be marginally
favorable for organized convective structures, with a very low-end
potential for a stray severe storm this afternoon. Coverage of
convection will dwindle through the evening, but the presence of
the upper trough to our west and persistent moist conditions should
result in isolated showers persisting through the night. Forecast
profiles indicate some drying may occur in the mid-levels, so
there is some potential for extensive fog...perhaps locally dense
to develop after midnight.
As the upper trough/upper low draws slowly closer, associated
weak frontal boundary is forecast to move into the forecast
area by Friday afternoon...providing another source of
convective initiation. Nevertheless, morning cloud cover is
expected to again be extensive, and destabilization therefore
modest-at-best. Nevertheless, at least scattered showers and storms
are expected to develop by Fri afternoon, warranting 30-50 PoPs
across most of the CWA. Weaker shear and modest instability will
result in even less of a severe storm threat, while locally heavy
rainfall will be of some concern through the period. Humid/mostly
cloudy conditions will result in min temps 5-10 degrees above normal
tonight, while maxes Friday are expected to be right around climo.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 105 PM EDT Thursday: An upper low moves from the middle TN
valley at the start of the period into our area and weakens by the
end of the period. At the surface, the cold front from the near term
stalls along the Carolina coast as waves of low pressure move north
along the boundary. Expect numerous to widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms Saturday as deep moisture remains over the
area along with good forcing ahead of the upper low. Isolated heavy
rainfall will be possible, but severe storm chance will be low. That
said, some strong storms are possible. Some mid level drying takes
place Sunday and forcing weakens, but copious low level moisture
remains in place. Expect convective coverage to be scattered for
most of the area, isolated for the SW Upstate and NE GA. Brief,
heavy rainfall remains possible, along with a few strong storms.
Highs will be a couple of degrees below normal both days with lows 5
to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday: All eyes then turn to the tropics and the
potential for a tropical cyclone to form. Model guidance continues
to vary greatly from run to run and from each other on the potential
impacts. Model guidance will hopefully get a better handle on the
situation by tomorrow as more aircraft and upper air data are
ingested. Also, a center needs to form for better model initiation.
The 12Z GFS is certainly a scary forecast for our area, but the 12Z
Canadian has come in with a scenario similar to its run yesterday
which keeps any cyclone off shore with little impact. The 12Z GFS
ensemble members show everything from no impact to a major impact.
All of this leads to a highly uncertain and low confidence forecast.
Given this, the forecast closely follows the national blend.
Generally scattered convection Monday and Tuesday with isolated
convection Wednesday and Thursday. Highs around 5 degrees below
normal Monday and Tuesday with lows around 5 degrees above normal.
Highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal Wednesday and Thursday with lows
around 5 degrees below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Abundant moisture remains in place
across the Terminal Forecast Area in advance of an upper
trough. Widespread cloud cover and morning showers have limited
the amount of instability across the area this afternoon, but
some clearing has recently been noted across the Piedmont...with
isolated deep convection developing along the zone between the
cloudier & clearing areas. Convection is expected to gradually
expand through the afternoon, with convection being most likely
at the upstate SC terminals and especially KAVL. Prob30s for
TSRA are carried in the Upstate TAFs, with a tempo for such at
KAVL. For now, the PM convective mention is limited to Prob30s
for SHRA at KCLT and KHKY. Otherwise, SCT/BKN clouds are expected
to remain (or increase) to the 035-050 range through much of the
afternoon. The convective potential will steadily diminish through
the evening, although isolated showers will remain possible through
the overnight. Statistical guidance...at least some of the more
reliable sources...are in generally good agreement in allowing cigs
to lower to IFR (or less) across the area circa 09Z Friday...and
this trend is reflected in all TAFs. Visby restrictions also appear
likely, and general 2-3SM visby is carried at most terminals...but
the potential certainly exists for lower conditions. Restrictions
will begin to improve in the 13-15Z time frame, but MVFR cigs are
expected to linger through at least Fri morning. SW winds of 5-10
kts are expected at most sites through the afternoon, with a trend
toward light/variable conditions this evening.
Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm chances, as well as associated
restrictions, continue for all terminals into the weekend ahead
of a cold front/upper low. Fog and low stratus are possible most
mornings, mainly in the mountain valleys. A tropical system could
bring widespread restrictions and rain to at least a part of the
area early next week, but confidence is low at this time.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion