Wellpinit, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

008
FXUS66 KOTX 071153
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and early evening. A
  few storms could be strong with gusty winds and heavy
  downpours. Best chances in the mountains.
- Cooler and unsettled weather returning to the region next week
  with increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms.
- Smoke and haze expected to continue for through the weekend
  with improvement in some areas.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Smoke and haze is expected into early next week though we have
seen some improvement in areas. The threat for showers and
thunderstorms will be in the moutains today then become more
widespread next week. Temperatures will be cooling into the
70s by next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Sunday: The region is under southwest flow aloft as a deep low inches
closer to the WA Coast and our resident upper-level ridge slides
into Western Montana. This has opened the gates to energy
pivoting around the low to move into the region. One disturbance
is coming through early this morning with showers and embedded
thunderstorms mainly over portions of Central WA. The shifting
weather pattern did usher in southwest winds Saturday evening
which resulted in improvement in surface visibility and air
quality for areas of Eastern WA and the lower Idaho Panhandle.
In these areas, steady southwest winds are expected to persist
through the day. Meanwhile, a strengthening pressure gradient
over the Cascades will result in steady northwest winds. All
things considered, HRRR modeled surface smoke suggests
conditions to slowly improve across the region except
immediately downstream or close proximity of active wildfires.
Northeastern WA and North Idaho come with lower confidence due
to lighter winds and amount of fires burning in these areas.
There has been subtle cooling aloft and lower-levels will remain
warm resulting in a conditionally unstable air mass. Models
project another vort max to swing around the low and track along
the west slopes of the Cascades today before veering east
across north-central WA. This track is a bit further west vs
projections from 24 hours. As a result, many of the hi-res
models are not generating as much convection this afternoon.
Coverage is isolated and looks to be driven by lift over the
higher terrain with surface heating. There is still concern for
a few stronger, more organized cells with CAPES from 600-1000
J/kg and effective shear of 15-25kts. Gusty winds, heavy
downpours of rain and hail, and scattered lightning will be
concerns with any cells. Rain cores have the potential to put
down a quick quarter of an inch. Highest probabilities for
storms remains across the northern mountains with a second area
stretch from Northeastern Oregon east into the lower Idaho
Panhandle. Convective inhibition is expected to keep areas
across the Basin in check but outflow boundaries traveling in
between these areas can sometimes provide the boundaries and
lift to initiate new cells outside the mountains. Folks with
outdoor plans in the mountains are urged to keep an eye to the
sky. There is potential for another midlevel wave to lift
through overnight into Monday morning though impacts from this
wave come with lower confidence.
Monday-Thursday: The upper-low pivots inland Monday and remains
parked over the Northwest through much of the week. This leads
to high confidence for much cooler temperatures and high
humidity. Just about every day from Monday through Wednesday
carries some degree of precipitation chances. Currently, the
highest probabilities for wetting rains arrives Monday night
into Tuesday when the strongest dynamics lift into the area
delivering a 40-60% chance for a tenth or more.
The low will fill and begin to drift out the region Friday as
another low approaches the coast. Tough to call any day
completely dry at this point with models indicating the second
low coming in quickly on its heels and essentially just
reloading the mean trough over the region. This is good news as
for additional precipitation, no significant warming or drying,
and little in the way of strong winds. Would not rule out some
breeziness as the reinforcing low arrives. There are only 20% of
the 100 member ensembles that keep these features about a day
apart which was closer to 50% yesterday so confidence is
increasing in this outcome. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms that has
been moving through Central WA overnight will continue tracking north
through this morning with the greatest threat for isolated
thunderstorms over the Cascades and northern mountains. This
afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will develop over a second
area stretching from NE Oregon into the Central Panhandle
Mountains of Idaho. A few storms could be strong with hail and
gusty winds. Omak, Colville, and Bonners Ferry, and Lewiston
come with a 30% probability to be impacted.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Low confidence that storms in NE Oregon and the Central
Panhandle Mountains will make it as far north as KPUW. For now,
left thunderstorms out of the KPUW TAF.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        86  58  82  56  74  54 /  30  20  10  40  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  86  59  83  57  76  55 /  30  30  10  30  50  40
Pullman        82  53  82  51  71  50 /  30  40  10  60  50  40
Lewiston       89  63  86  61  78  60 /  40  50  10  60  50  50
Colville       87  48  81  47  75  45 /  40  50  30  30  60  40
Sandpoint      83  53  80  52  75  50 /  30  40  30  30  60  50
Kellogg        85  59  81  57  74  57 /  30  40  20  40  60  60
Moses Lake     88  56  82  56  74  53 /  40  20  10  40  70  20
Wenatchee      86  61  82  61  71  59 /  30  20  10  50  70  30
Omak           89  60  84  60  77  57 /  30  30  20  40  70  40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
     Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
     Red Flag Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for East
     Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696).
ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
     Panhandle.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion