Wells, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

640
FXUS63 KMPX 181052
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
552 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through the
  weekend.
- Slow moving storms and high atmospheric moisture content will
  likely lead to areas of heavy rain totals each of the next few
  days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Scattered showers across western MN grow into widespread
showers farther west across the Dakotas early this morning.
Water vapor imagery highlights several small scale disturbances
within the trough across the northern Plains and a dry slot
attempting to reach southwestern MN. Pwats are expected to drop
today and lapse rates will remain poor, although there will be
some modest, skinny, uncapped CAPE this afternoon. Cannot rule
out some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during
diurnal peak, but the lack of a trigger should mean another
mostly quiet day.
A more substantive shortwave is expected to rotate north from
the central Plains this evening to MN by Friday morning.
Accompanying it is a recovery of Pwats back to 1.5-1.75 inches.
A moist adiabatic profile and very little or no CAPE will keep
the thunder threat modest, but wind profiles remain favorable
for slow moving or training showers capable of heavy rainfall
totals. Coverage should be better than anything we`ve seen so
far from this system. By Friday, the core of the upper low will
finally begin making progress eastward and should slowly
propagate across MN through Friday night, reaching WI Saturday.
PoPs will be highest east of the system within the warm conveyor
belt. As another trough approaches from the west, it will absorb
the week-long upper low by early Sunday over WI and prolong the
cyclonic flow and scattered shower threat possibly into Monday.
The rest of next week looks mostly dry with seasonable
temperatures, although general troughiness will remain. Another
upper low will dive southeast to the central Plains and mid to
lower Mississippi Valley midweek. It`s possible we will be on
the northern fringe of that system and PoPs may eventually be
introduced, but the better chances for any substantial precip
should remain well to the south.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
An MVFR/IFR stratus deck associated with a system spinning over
South Dakota is working its way into southwestern Minnesota this
morning. A few scattered showers and patchy fog are possible
throughout the morning, particularly across central Minnesota.
Have included IFR/LIFR conditions for KAXN and KSTC for a few
hours this morning, but a return to VFR cigs/vis is anticipated.
As we get into the mid to late afternoon, showers and storms are
expected to become more numerous as the surface low begins to
move out of the Dakotas. Have addressed this threat with PROB30s
since coverage/timing are still uncertain. After 00-03z, -SHRA
becomes more likely with a return to IFR/MVFR cigs/vis through
the remainder of the period.
KMSP...Models have isolated/scattered thunderstorms developing
sometime after 21-23z in the vicinity of KMSP. Since there is
still a fair amount of uncertainty, opted to cover this with a
PROB30 as mentioned above. MVFR conditions are expected to
develop by early Friday morning with -SHRA continuing.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR. -SHRA likely, chc -TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SAT...Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SUN...Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Dye

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion