Welsh Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

311
FXUS64 KLCH 071312
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
812 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Residual low level moisture, light winds, and clear skies will
  bring about patchy fog into the early morning hours.
- Very warm and humid conditions are expected until a cold front moves
  across on Thursday. An upper level high and dry air aloft will
  keep any significant shower activity form developing.
- A dry continental air mass will move into the region behind the
  cold front and linger into the weekend. This will keep
  significant rain chances out of the forecast with lower humidity
  and cooler night time lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Residual low level moisture to go along with mainly clear skies,
light winds, and stable conditions will allow for patchy fog to
develop through the early morning hours today.
Decent low level moisture will hang around allowing for muggy night
time conditions and very warm almost summer-like days for today into
Wednesday, before a cold front moves into the forecast area on
Thursday.
Upper level ridging and dry aloft is expected during the period, so
not much chance for significant shower activity ahead of the front.
Behind the front, a dry continental air mass will filter in lowering
humidity values.
Rua
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Strong high pressure from the Great Lakes will build down into the
forecast area behind the cold frontal boundary. This will bring in a
dry continental air mass in the low levels that will remain over the
forecast area into the weekend. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will be
noted over Texas with an upper level trough developing over the
southeast U.S. This will help provide a dry northwest flow aloft
over the forecast area.
The combination of the dry air in the low levels, along with capping
and dry air aloft, will keep the mention of rain out of the forecast
into the weekend.
Mainly dry air advection is noted behind the front. Therefore, air
temperatures will be cool and comfortable at night and close to
seasonal norms. However, with good solar heating expected and lack
of overall cloud cover, air temperatures will be very warm during
the daytime and likely slightly above climo norms.
By early next week, the surface high pressure system will have moved
off to the east with more of a east to southeast flow developing
that will bring back shallow Gulf moisture to help bring warmer
night time lows along with keeping daytime highs a little above
seasonal norms to go along with more humid conditions. Upper level
ridging will keep the mention of pops out of the forecast despite
the increase in low level moisture.
Rua
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 810 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Areas of patchy fog will lift over the next hour. Some low ceiling
may continue to remain over Acadiana terminals until late morning.
Overall, conditions will become VFR by local noon as dry air mixes
out low level reductions in VIS and CIG. Another round of patchy
fog possible tonight, though guidance trends toward greater
visibility into 08th/AM.
30
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Remnant surface trough will help bring light onshore winds today
along with low seas. Winds will become light to modest from the
northeast by Wednesday as weak surface high pressure ridging across
the Gulf coast states will build into the coastal waters. The
offshore winds along with seas will increase by Thursday as a cold
front moves into the coastal waters. Offshore winds will remain
elevated through the end of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Shallow low level moisture will be found across the region. This
will bring patchy fog for the next couple of days overnight and
during the very early morning. Afternoon minimum relative humidity
values are expected to be between 50 and 60 percent through
Wednesday. Despite the low level moisture, an upper level high and
dry air aloft will help keep rain chances very low over the next
couple of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  68  87  62 /  10  10  10   0
LCH  91  72  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  90  72  90  68 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  91  72  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion