West Hazleton, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

118
FXUS61 KBGM 201724
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
124 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in place today and Sunday will keep weather
conditions quiet and dry the rest of the weekend. A noticeable
pattern shift will occur late Monday into the middle of next
week with chances for rain showers and a few thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
125 PM...
Main concerns in the near term are focused on the dominant
ridge of high pressure over the Northeast US which will keep the
entire region dry with above average high temperatures and
cool, with slightly below average, overnight temperatures.
Clear skies today will continue into this evening with
temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s...and dry dew
points in the upper 30s and 40s this afternoon. Winds shift to
the south/se and increase slightly tonight as the ridge axis
moves eastward in preparation for an incoming wave from the
west. Southerly winds will increase during the day Sunday with
gusts 20 mph...which will usher in warmer temperatures as well.
Skies remain mostly sunny. Highs will top out in the mid to
upper 70s...with dew points in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
125 PM...
500 mb heights will start to lower on Sunday night into Monday
as a weak upper short wave strengthens off the East Coast (but
moves out to sea) and the incoming long wave from the west
gradually moves through the Great Lakes.
Conditions on Monday will likely be mostly dry but we will
start to see clouds thicken and move west to east through the
day. South winds will remain 10 to 20 mph, which will be pulling
in quite warm air from the south. Highs are expected to top out
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Humidity will start to rise
further as well with dew points in the 50s and low 60s.
By Monday afternoon, precipitation chances over the Finger
Lakes increase to around 40 to 50 pct. The rain chances spread
slowly eastward across central NY and ne PA Monday night and
Tuesday as the upper short wave and associated cold front move
in and slowly drag across the region. There is a threat of
strong to possibly severe storms later in the day Tuesday where
an axis of ML CAPE values reach above 500 J/kg and the higher
deep layer shear values more than 30 kt to the north try to
overlap. Confidence in this occurring is on the low side. Cannot
rule out a few weak thunderstorms, but the threat for severe
storms is low.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM...
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to the
overall synoptic pattern later this week. The stretched out cold
front/wave moving across the Northeast/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
will phase with another low farther to the west over the
Southern Plains. This system could potentially cut off over the
central CONUS and allow for another building ridge over the
Northeast US for a brief period of time this week before the
cut-off low in the Midwest slowly moves eastward Thu, Fri and
into the weekend.
It definitely does not appear to be a significant amount of
rain for the latter half of this week, but it does look like the
pattern will be much more conducive for periods of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will also remain at or slightly
above normal for this time of year with highs on Wed in the mid
to upper 70s...and in the upper 60s and low 70s Thu and Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
115 PM Update
VFR conditions are expected to persist through much of the taf
period. Just a few high clouds are around the region this
afternoon, evening and into tonight. A lower stratus marine
layer cloud deck may form over portions of Pennsylvania late
tonight into Sunday morning. This will bring the potential for
MVFR cloud bases and/or CIGs INVOF ELM and perhaps AVP...mainly
in the 09-14z timeframe. With increasing southeast winds late
tonight and Sunday morning, widespread fog seems unlikely to
form. Just some patchy mist will be possible in the valleys
early Sunday morning.
Surface winds will be light east-northeast the rest of today, and
into tonight. Winds then turn southeast and increase heading into
the day on Sunday, with gusts of 15-20 kts possible by midday or
afternoon.
Outlook...
Sunday Afternoon and Night...Mainly VFR expected. Some MVFR
stratus clouds possible overnight near ELM/AVP or BGM.
Monday through Wednesday...Isolated to scattered showers with
occasional restrictions possible. Best chance for steadier rain
will be on Tuesday afternoon.
Thursday...A chance for scattered showers and associated
restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...KL/MJM

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion