Whitley Heights, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

643
FXUS62 KRAH 161320
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
918 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will drift into the Tidewater region of NC and VA
today, then linger while weakening, through mid-week. Canadian high
pressure will otherwise extend across the eastern US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 918 AM Tuesday...
The Flood Watch has been cancelled. The heavy rain threat has
shifted to the north and east of central NC given latest
observational trends and model guidance. Flooding is no longer
expected to pose a threat. The prior discussion follows below.
As of 400 AM Tuesday...
00Z upr air and GOES-E WV data depict an upr-level low near CLT.
While model guidance suggests the low will move little over the NC
srn Piedmont/Sandhills vicinity through 12Z Wed, a second mid-level
center may form beneath a redeveloping/repeating area of deep
convection 50-100 miles off the NC/VA coast, then drift nwwd to the
VA Tidewater vicinity by early tonight.
At the surface, a ~1010 mb low evident ~75 miles east of KHSE in
surface/buoy and GOES-E NT Microphysics data, has yet to turn nwwd;
and the overall trend in model guidance has been to keep the low
farther northeast than previous forecasts - likely to not move
inland until tonight near the Norfolk Metro and Hampton Roads
vicinity. Based on these observational trends of a delayed nwwd
motion, a blend of the 00Z/16th EC/GEM appears to be a good
compromise between the wrn outlier GFS that brings the center of the
low into the NC Tidewater by 18Z and steadfast HRRR that keeps the
center offshore.
Based on the pattern aloft and at the surface described above, the
footprint of rain, especially that which would be capable of
producing flooding, will likely materialize farther northeast than
previously anticipated. While the current alignment of the Flood
Watch captures the threat area in cntl NC, the greater threat of
flooding will probably focus in a persistent deformation
precipitation band over sern VA and far nern NC through early
tonight. Indeed, the newly collaborated DY1 WPC ERO will depict only
a Level 1 of 4/Marginal risk of flash flooding in cntl NC through
12Z Wed, with a Level 2 of 4/Slight risk along and north of the
Roanoke River, shifted newd relative to the previous outlook that
included RAH`s far ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain.
Instability supportive of thunder, even of the elevated variety,
will likely hold to the east of cntl NC and remain along coastal
areas and especially points ewd across the near-shore coastal
waters.
It will otherwise be unseasonably cool today owing to limited
insolation and the continued presence of a Canadian surface ridge
and airmass that will remain over cntl NC. The coolest temperatures
will occur where rain occurs and diabatically cools the low-levels
(ie. most likely over the far ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain),
where daytime temperatures between 60-65 F will be likely. At least
a few peaks of sun will probably occur across the far srn Piedmont
and Sandhills, on the sswrn edge of the multi-layered cloud shield
around the surface through mid/upr-level cyclones, where
temperatures will be more likely to diabatically warm into the 70s.
Rain, where it occurs, will gradually taper off and shift nwd
tonight, but with following low overcast and a cool, mid 50s to
around 60 F Wed morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Tuesday...
As the upper level low shifts off to the NE, the surface low will
follow. On  Wednesday morning expect portions of the northeast
Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain to have lingering showers
through at least the afternoon as the surface low moves off the
VA/NC coast. By the evening hours, the center of the low, along with
the bulk of the precipitation is expected to be out of NC and mainly
across eastern VA. QPF for Wednesday (8am onward) in the NE will
range from a few hundredths to a few tenths. NW winds of 5-10 mph
will be persistent through the day, with occasional gusts of 15 to
20mph especially across the far northwestern counties. Temperatures
will be well below average with a large temperature gradient with
upper 60s in the far NE and upper 70s to near 80 in the far SE. Lows
will range from upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 AM Tuesday...
Upper level trough will linger over the Mid-Atlantic region through
the rest of the work week before a weak ridge moves across the OH
valley over the weekend. By Tuesday models are in agreement that
another deepening trough will move across the MS valley and into the
Mid-Atlantic region by mid week. Dry weather is expected Thursday
through Saturday. Precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon
ahead of a frontal boundary. Sunday afternoon rain chances remain
low, 15-25 percent, with lingering chances through Monday afternoon.
As the frontal boundary inches closer, cant rule out isolated
showers/storms Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Temperatures will
be near normal with Friday being the warmest day in the mid to upper
80s. Over the weekend expects temps in the low to mid 60s. With
increased rain chances next week temperature will range from upper
70s to low 80s. Lows through much of the long term period will be in
the low to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 725 AM Tuesday...
Based on continued observational and model trends, it appears
increasingly likely that flight restrictions and rain will be
confined to the far nern portions of cntl NC, mainly at RWI, through
tonight. Nly winds will increase and peak between 10-15 kts
sustained, with occasional gusts into the upr teens to mid 20s kts -
most likely and strongest at RWI.
Outlook: Areas of low clouds may linger especially around RWI
through Wednesday night.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Kren/MWS
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...MWS

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion