Wickes, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

347
FXUS64 KLZK 010643
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
143 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
-Sunny skies expected today with light winds and diurnal cumulus
this afternoon.
-A weak upper level disturbance will bring a chance for an isolated
shower or thunderstorm on Thursday.
-Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm averaging roughly
 5 to 8 degrees for high temperatures through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
High pressure centered over N IL this morning is progged to slide
southeast into the Ohio Valley later today allowing for partly
cloudy to mostly sunny skies to continue today across the entire
state. The ridge of high pressure will continue to slide east on
Thursday to be centered over the eastern US. As the weak
disturbance currently visible on WV this morning slides east,
moisture will continue to increase from south to southeast flow
streamiing north into the state. The combination of increased
moisture and instability will allow for a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop on Thursday afternoon.
By Friday, high pressure aloft continues to dominate with dry
weather and light winds expected. By this weekend, both
deterministic models continue to show the development of an upper
low/inverted trough over the vicinity of S AL/N FL. Latest model
guidance continues to diverge on solutions related to track of the
upper low/inverted trough this weekend into early next week. The
GFS solution is just north of the current ECMWF solution showing
the upper low/trough over eastern MS into NW LA sometime on
Saturday. Other than some mid and high level cloudiness, no other
weather is expected from this feature on Sunday.
By Monday, model guidance shows a weak upper low over the Gulf
coast will move north toward the ArklaTex region will help to pull
moisture north into the state. At the same time, a frontal
boundary will dive southeast but remain over the central Plains
just northwest of the state. The combination of both features will
lead to enough ascent for isolated showers and thunderstorms over
much of the state mainly on Monday afternoon. By Tuesday into
Wednesday, high pressure builds back in at the lower and mid
levels of the atmopshere largely suppressing the chance for any
convection over the state.
High temperatures across the state will be roughly 6 to 8 degrees
above normal, then around 5 to 7 degrees above normal with light
and variable winds through most of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Satellite early this morning shows some mid and high level cloudiness
over parts of eastern and southeastern Arkansas associated with
an upper level disturbance over the gulf coast region. No
precipitation is expected over the state and the cloudiness
should push east of the state later this morning. Light and
variable winds are expected today with some afternoon diurnal CU.
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  63  90  62 /   0   0  10   0
Camden AR         89  65  88  62 /   0  10  20   0
Harrison AR       84  61  85  60 /   0   0  10   0
Hot Springs AR    88  66  88  63 /   0   0  20   0
Little Rock   AR  88  68  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
Monticello AR     91  68  90  64 /   0  10  10   0
Mount Ida AR      89  63  88  62 /   0   0  20   0
Mountain Home AR  87  62  88  61 /   0   0  10   0
Newport AR        90  65  90  63 /   0   0  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     90  66  90  62 /   0   0  10   0
Russellville AR   90  65  90  63 /   0   0  10   0
Searcy AR         89  66  90  62 /   0   0  10   0
Stuttgart AR      89  68  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...76

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion