Williams Bay, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

036
FXUS63 KMKX 190912
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
412 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog in east-central Wisconsin, primarily along the Lake
  Michigan counties, will remain possible through early this
  morning.
- Thunderstorm chances from Madison westward by this afternoon,
  with showers and storms becoming likely across southern
  Wisconsin tonight. Chances for showers and storms continue
  into early next week along with near to above normal
  temperatures.
- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Sheboygan to Winthrop
  Harbor tonight into Saturday afternoon due to breezy east to
  southeast winds and building waves.
- A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect from Sheboygan County
  south through Racine County due to a High Swim Risk tonight
  into Saturday afternoon. Persistent breezy east to southeast
  winds and building waves are forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 412 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Today through Saturday:
Persistent warm air advection aloft is expected today through
Saturday as an upper level trough sits over the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest. Moisture will be plenty, with precipitable
water values in the 1-1.50" range. Scattered showers and a few
storms are expected from this afternoon through Saturday, with
the chances peaking tonight through the day Saturday as a
shortwave pushes through. Went with 50-80% precip chances during
this period of better forcing, with largely 30-50% chance
otherwise. Could see some pokes of sunshine today to allow temps
to push 80 away from Lake Michigan (with cooler temps near the
lake). It will be a bit cooler across southern Wisconsin
Saturday due to the clouds and precip chances, though highs in
the low to mid 70s will still be near to a little above normal.
Patchy fog in eastern portions of the forecast area is expected
to improve early to mid-morning as daytime mixing kicks in.
Persistent breezy east to southeast winds tonight into Saturday
will result in a High Swim Risk for Lake Michigan beaches from
Sheboygan County south through Racine County. Life threatening
waves and currents are expected. Stay out of the water, and stay
away from dangerous areas like piers and breakwalls.
DDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 412 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Sunday through Thursday:
The large scale troughing pattern will linger Sunday and Monday,
possibly into Tuesday as well. Moisture and instability will
also hang on during this period, so additional rounds of showers
and thunderstorms will be possible for the early part of the
week. Temperatures will remain near to a little above normal
through this time frame.
High pressure will settle into the region from the north mid-
week, bringing a return of drier conditions to southern
Wisconsin. Temperatures will be a little cooler as well, though
highs will still be within a couple degrees of normal.
DDV
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 412 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Visibilities and ceilings below VFR conditions for a few areas
east of Madison will linger through early this morning, with a
return to VFR likely by mid to late morning. Shower/storm
chances are expected to increase later today into tonight, with
lower ceilings likely pushing back into the area by later
tonight as a trough pushes into the area. East to southeast
winds 5 to 10 knots are expected to prevail today and tonight.
DDV
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 412 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Easterly winds generally under 15 knots are expected today.
Patchy fog with visibilities as low as 1 mile is expected across
western portions of the lake early this morning before
dissipating by mid-morning. Breezy east-southeast winds will
then prevail tonight through Saturday morning as Canadian high
pressure strengthens to around 30.4 inches as it moves into the
Lower Great Lakes and southern Quebec, and as low pressure
around 29.9 inches moves from the eastern Dakotas into
Minnesota. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for tonight into
Saturday afternoon. Intermittent showers and thunderstorms are
expected tonight through Sunday.
DDV
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071...1 AM
     Saturday to 4 PM Saturday.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 AM
     Saturday to 4 PM Saturday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion