Wilton, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

507
FXUS63 KFGF 241905
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
205 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued above average temperatures into the 70s and 80s
  along with predominately dry conditions through at least the
  weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...Synopsis...
The upper pattern features weak flow aloft and block-y type
synoptic set up with the polar jet remaining well north into
Canada, and stalled stationary upper lows/troughs in the western
and eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure and subsidence aloft
will allow for another night of favorable radiational cooling
aloft. However, there is a weak frontal passage etching its way
into the area from the north, which would serve to keep winds
elevated some. This mitigates potential for fog formation at
least north of US Highway 2. But locations ahead of the front,
like those in the southern Red River Valley into lakes country
of Minnesota are liable for another morning of fog Thursday.
Ensemble guidance strongly suggests this type of synoptic
pattern persists through the weekend into next week, with upper
ridging amplifying/building into central Canada. Overall dry air
mass continues to be reinforced into the region without any
appreciable source/return flow of moisture. This along with
relatively warm temperatures aloft will continue to promote
above average temperatures well into the 70s with some low to
mid 80s into portions of eastern ND and the Red River Valley
through the rest of this week. There is potential these
temperatures (or even warmer) extends into next week given
amplifying/building ridging aloft.
It isn`t until mid next week when ensemble guidance suggests
potential for decreasing geopotential heights aloft, which would
promote ascent and possibly some forcing for showers and
thunderstorms. With above average temperatures likely to
continue through at least this weekend, thunderstorms will
remain possible although degree of severity remains in question.
As of now, there are no signals for appreciable strong to
severe storm potential given the lack more robust forcing as
well as low level moisture to increase instability.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the TAF period at
all sites except KFAR and KBJI. At these locations, there is
another chance for fog between 09Z-14Z Thursday.
Otherwise, winds will remain light 6kt or less through at least
09Z. After 09Z, a weak front moves through shifting winds more
northerly increasing to 10-15kt.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion