550 FXUS65 KFGZ 221732 AFDFGZArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1032 AM MST Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will continue through morning and early afternoon, before drying out Tuesday through about Wednesday night. Unsettled weather will then return for the end of this week into the weekend.
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.DISCUSSION...Moisture remains in place over the region as tropical southwesterly flow is pointed right into the local area. Through the first part of the night, better precipitation development was noted south and east of Prescott, with lighter and scattered activity elsewhere. This enhanced band of precipitation near Prescott, which was developing in response to an upper level jet ahead of a system off the SoCal Coast, is expected to continue to develop and drift northeast through the morning and early afternoon before it decouples from the upper level support and diminishes. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms should be Prescott through Winslow this morning, transitioning to an area from south of Flagstaff to Alpine early this afternoon. Moderate to heavy rainfall and training showers and thunderstorms may lead to isolated flooding today.
Drier air and a pinched ridge then take over from Tuesday through about Wednesday night, as Arizona sits in the middle of the offshore low and a broad trough over the plains. This should keep precipitation chances low, focusing any chances on terrain in the afternoon.
Finally, the offshore starts to move inland late this week into the weekend, potentially bringing all kinds of problems to Arizona. This pattern could produce some severe weather and heavy rain. The catch is, the movement of a cutoff low is hard to predict, we will have to wait and see. Latest model runs continue to show significant uncertainty in what the low will do and how much moisture will be available.
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.AVIATION...Monday 22/18Z through Tuesday 23/18Z...MVFR conditions possible southeast of a KPRC-KINW-KRQE line in heavier SHRA/TSRA. VFR conditions likely northwest of that same line. SHRA/TSRA should exit to the east by 03Z with fair skies afterward. Winds SW-W 10kts this afternoon, light and variable or terrain driven after 03Z.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 23/18Z through Thursday 25/18Z...VFR conditions expected, a few isolated -SHRA/-TSRA over the higher terrain possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Winds N-NE 5-10kts Tuesday afternoon, E-NE 5-10kts Wednesday afternoon. Light and variable or terrain driven overnight.
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.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to continue through the morning, becoming more widespread by this afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast for high terrain areas Tuesday afternoon. Daytime winds from the southwest to west at 5 to 15 mph today, shifting to the north-northeast on Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist, with the highest chances Thursday and Friday. Light and variable winds Wednesday will becoming southwesterly 10 to 15 mph Thursday and Friday.
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.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
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PUBLIC...VEF Nickerson AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion