Winslow, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

095
FXUS65 KFGZ 221045 AAA
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
Issued by National Weather Service Tucson AZ
345 AM MST Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
morning and early afternoon, before drying out Tuesday through
about Wednesday night. Unsettled weather will then return for the
end of this week into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Moisture remains in place over the region as
tropical southwesterly flow is pointed right into the local area.
Through the first part of the night, better precipitation
development was noted south and east of Prescott, with lighter and
scattered activity elsewhere. This enhanced band of precipitation
near Prescott, which was developing in response to an upper level
jet ahead of a system off the SoCal Coast, is expected to
continue to develop and drift northeast through the morning and
early afternoon before it decouples from the upper level support
and diminishes. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms
should be Prescott through Winslow this morning, transitioning to
an area from south of Flagstaff to Alpine early this afternoon.
Moderate to heavy rainfall and training showers and thunderstorms
may lead to isolated flooding today.
Drier air and a pinched ridge then take over from Tuesday through
about Wednesday night, as Arizona sits in the middle of the
offshore low and a broad trough over the plains. This should keep
precipitation chances low, focusing any chances on terrain in the
afternoon.
Finally, the offshore starts to move inland late this week into
the weekend, potentially bringing all kinds of problems to
Arizona. This pattern could produce some severe weather and heavy
rain. The catch is, the movement of a cutoff low is hard to
predict, we will have to wait and see. Latest model runs continue
to show significant uncertainty in what the low will do and how
much moisture will be available.
&&
.AVIATION...Monday 22/12Z through Tuesday 23/12Z...MVFR conditions
possible in -SHRA/-TSRA from 12Z to 22Z, mainly along and near a
KPRC-KINW-KRQE line. Isolated pockets of 3SM SHRA/TSRA thru 20Z. VFR
conditions with ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA expected elsewhere. Winds VRB 5-
10 kts.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 23/12Z through Thursday 25/12Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible over the higher terrain Tuesday afternoon and
Wednesday afternoon. SCT SHRA/TSRA possible Thursday. Winds NW-NE
5-10 kts on Tuesday, becoming E/NE on Wednesday. Locally gusty NE winds
downwind of the terrain Tuesday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Expect shower and
thunderstorm activity to continue through the morning, becoming
more widespread by this afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are forecast for high terrain areas Tuesday afternoon. Daytime winds
from the southwest to west at 5 to 15 mph today, shifting to the
north-northeast on Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms
will persist, with the highest chances Thursday and Friday. Light
and variable winds Wednesday will becoming southwesterly 10 to 15
mph Thursday and Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...VEF Nickerson
AVIATION...Humphreys/TWC-Rasmussen
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion