Witch Wells, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

764
FXUS65 KFGZ 172307
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
407 PM MST Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Moisture and chances for storms increase over the
next few days as remnants of Tropical Cyclone Mario move into the
area. Cooler temperatures and generally light winds are expected
to close out the week with a return to dry weather and a warming
trend to start out next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...While models continue to take the bulk of Mario`s
remnants into California to give that state an unusual September
rain, we`ll still see an uptick of moisture over Arizona. At this
time the southern part of the state has already seen a good push
of moisture with some scattered thunderstorms occurring over
Tucson`s CWA. A few isolated showers and storms have formed over
the White Mountains and far eastern Mogollon Rim this afternoon
on the far northern fringe of this moisture, but the northern half
of the Flagstaff CWA remains quite dry at this time.
On Thursday more tropical moisture moves into the area leading to
widespread band of showers and storms over the southern half of
the state to start the day, with the showers moving north into the
southern part of our CWA starting early afternoon. For the most
part when the area gets leftover moisture from tropical systems
its generally of a stratiform nature, especially as this looks
like a large band of clouds that should keep the surface heating
limited, but some limited CAPE does exist that embedded thunderstorms
are a possibility, especially in the afternoon and early evening.
Shower chances will continue over the northern and northwestern
part of the CWA Thursday night and eventually into northeastern
Arizona by Friday morning. Another area of showers and storms are
expected to fire between late morning and early afternoon, the
time depending on how much clearing after the first band of clouds
and showers moves away.
While the bulk of the moisture moves out on Saturday, enough
remains that the higher terrain along the Rim and White Mountains
could see a few isolated storms. By Sunday High Pressure building
to the south over northern Mexico combined with a trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest will combine to cause a zonal to
northwesterly flow aloft which will once again suppress Monsoon
moisture and dry things out and allow high temperatures to climb
about 5 degrees above average.
&&
.AVIATION...Thursday 18/00Z through Friday 19/00Z...Mainly VFR
expected. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KPAN-KSJN line through 02Z,
then ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA mainly along and south of KGCN-KFLG-KJTC
line after 18Z/Thu. Gusty and erratic winds and brief MVFR
conditions possible in and around TS. Outside of storms, expect
daytime SW- NW winds 5-15 kts becoming light and variable
overnight.
OUTLOOK...Friday 19/00Z through Sunday 21/00Z...Mainly VFR
expected. ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA mainly along and south of KGCN-
KFLG-KJTC line spreading NE and becoming NMRS thursday night into
Friday. Gusty and erratic winds and brief MVFR conditions
possible in and around TS. Outside of storms, expect daytime S-SW
winds 5-15 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms moving from south to north Thursday, becoming more
widespread Thursday night and Friday. Wetting rain is likely.
Generally light winds, trending southwesterly 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue on Saturday, turning warmer and drying for Sunday and
Monday. Winds mainly light.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion