Wolfforth, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

134
FXUS64 KLUB 201743
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this
   afternoon and expected to continue overnight into Sunday
   morning.
- Much warmer Sunday and Monday, with record breaking heat
   possible.
- Cooler temperatures and storm chances expected Tuesday and
   Wednesday following a cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Current radar imagery shows lingering showers continuing to
dissipate over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and should
clear within the next hour. Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail
through the day as upper ridging sets up over northern Mexico and
an upper trough swings through the Great Lakes region. With our
region in the middle of the two upper level systems, a 250 mb jet
has set up over the region. On the surface, southwesterly flow
has gradually shifted to the south in response to a lee side low
that has developed over northeastern New Mexico. The southerly
flow will continue to warm temperatures through this afternoon to
the upper 80s and lower 90s on the Caprock and lower 90s off the
Caprock.
Chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms return
this afternoon through the evening in response to a shortwave
moving overhead. With large-scale ascent, although weak, from the
upper jet and passing shortwave as well as warm temperatures and
dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s, storms will be possible through
the evening with the greatest chances being over the far
southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern portions of the Rolling
Plains. An outflow boundary from thunderstorms over the Central
Plains early this morning that have since dissipated surges
southward. Current surface observations show the boundary over the
Oklahoma Panhandle and is expected to continue to surge southward
towards our CWA. Showers and thunderstorms along and a head of
the outflow boundary are also possible. Severe threat will be low
for storms that do develop, however some severe wind gusts and
small hail will be possible with more robust thunderstorms. With
PWATs around 1.2-1.3 inches, especially off the Caprock, can
expect localized heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will linger overnight as a LLJ
sets up over the region.
By Sunday, storms will continue through the morning hours in
response to another shortwave moving overhead, however
precipitation chances will decrease to near zero through the
afternoon as the northeastern portion of the upper ridging
translates eastward over the Texas Panhandle. The lee surface low
that developed over New Mexico will track eastward through the
CWA through Sunday afternoon. An associated dryline will push
through the region where models indicate it will stall right on
the edge of the Caprock. With the effects from the upper ridging
directly overhead, conditions will dry out and temperatures will
increase with heights and thicknesses increasing.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Summer temperatures have not got the memo that we are nearing
Fall with Monday expected to be the hottest day of the week.
Heights and thicknesses increasing due to the upper ridging
overhead will continue to increase temperatures on Monday. Highs
are expected to be in the mid-to-upper 90s for most of the
region, however some southern portions of the Rolling Plains
could reach lower triple digits. Record high temperatures could
possibly be broken Monday with some areas are forecasted around
or slightly above the previous record. Lubbock`s record high
temperature for Monday is 98 degrees set in 1977, however we may
break this record as a high of 99 degrees is forecasted for the
Lubbock airport.
Hot temperature will not linger for long as the upper pattern is
should shift by Tuesday. The upper ridging is expected to flatten
as an upper low swings through the Central Plains through the
middle of the week. As the upper low tracks through the Central
Plains, an associated surface low will push a cold front through
the region Tuesday. Models disagree with the timing of the front,
therefore NBM gives a wide range of high temperatures on Tuesday
with lower 80s over the far southern Texas Panhandle and low 90s
over southern portions of the Rolling Plains. As timing of the
front is uncertain at the moment, will leave NBM temperatures for
Tuesday, however could change for later forecasts. Surface flow
will shift to the north following the FROPA keeping cooler
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. In addition to cooler
temperatures, lift associated with the FROPA will bring shower and
thunderstorm chances to the region Tuesday and will linger into
Wednesday as an upper jet streak sets up over the Texas Panhandle.
Temperatures are expected to warm back up and conditions will dry
out by the end of the week as models indicate an omega blocking
pattern setting up over CONUS with our region directly underneath
upper ridging. Precipitation chances could return by the weekend
as the back end low of the omega block translates through the
Desert Southwest, however this pattern is too far out to be
certain at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Isolated storms will be possible this afternoon at all TAF sites but
coverage is expected to be too low to mention in the TAF at the
moment. A higher chances of thunderstorms is expected near the KCDS
terminal late this evening into early Sunday morning. A weak surface
wind shift boundary will sag southward into the southern Texas
Panhandle early Sunday morning which may bring low CIGS to the KCDS
terminal.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion