Zebulon, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

014
FXUS62 KRAH 071816
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
215 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift southeast of our area this evening. The
front will then settle off the coast of the southeastern United
States into the middle of the week as cool high pressure extends
into the area from the Mid-Atlantic.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM Sunday...
* Much cooler today with below normal highs, warmest in the early
  part of the day
* Cloud cover slow to erode with a moist post-frontal NE flow
* A few patchy showers around into midday, but storms should mainly
  reside east of the area
The surface cold front is still tucked west of the Appalachians of
NC and VA. The majority of the shower activity has waned
considerably in the last few hours as the effective front has pushed
well east of the area and stabilized the atmosphere. Plenty of low
and mid-layer clouds will continue to overspread the area as the
upper-trough is still to our west and the 850/700 mb frontal
position will be slow to move through until late tonight to early
Mon.
The cold front will edge south and through the area this morning
across the north, to early afternoon in the far SE, eventually
reaching the coast this evening. The front will then settle offshore
of the SE US later tonight as cool 1027 mb high pressure edges
southward from the OH valley.
It will be a much cooler day today compared to yesterday, by some 15-
20 degrees in the upper 60s to near 70 in the north to the low 80s
in the SE. Our warmest temperatures should be felt this morning just
along and south of the front. As the front moves through,
temperatures could drop into the 60s along/north of US-64 as
suggested by some high-res models. Otherwise, expect plenty of low
stratus with a moist post-frontal NE flow, at times gusting to 15-20
mph in the SE. The low clouds will be slow to erode, earliest to
lift in the NW Piedmont and slowest in the southeast. As for rain
chances, isolated to scattered rain/showers are possible this
morning and early afternoon mainly along/north of US-64 with the
850/700 mb front and trough overhead. This afternoon, instability
largely focuses east of the area. The latest HREF shows the best
chance of storms along and just inland of the immediate coast. We
have kept 30-percent PoPs in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain,
however.
Low and high clouds should finally clear out tonight with high
pressure building into the area. Overnight lows will dip into the
low/mid 50s in the north and near 60 in the south. Some spots in the
far north could dip into the upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 123 PM Sunday...
The sfc front will remain stalled well off the Carolina Coast on
Monday as nely flow locks in over central NC.  Expect cooler weather
with highs only reaching the lower to mid 70s. There is good
consensus amongst models for H9/H8 drier air to advect into central
NC Monday afternoon.  As such, expect good mixing and dew points to
fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s from nw to se. Given the tight
gradient between a strong sfc high over New England and a developing
offshore low, expect nnely gusts of 15 to 25 mph throughout the day
highest for those east of I-95. Forecast soundings indicate mixing
continuing overnight and as such expect gusts to continue through
Tuesday morning. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...
* Near to below normal temperatures
* Best chance for rain will be across the Coastal Plain Tuesday
  night/Wednesday. Otherwise, dry weather should prevail.
Aloft, a broad trough to the west Tue and Wed will gradually shift
ewd across the area Thu and Fri as a s/w swings through it. The s/w
will move offshore on Sat, while a s/w drops south out of Canada and
into the Northeast through Sun. There are still some differences in
the available guidance wrt the strength of the weekend s/w, as well
as the position of the ridge to the west of it. At the surface, cool
high pressure will ridge swd across the area Tue and Wed as the
parent high lifts nnewd across New England and Nova Scotia.
Meanwhile, an elongated coastal low may develop within the inverted
trough offshore potentially strengthening as it lifts nnewd along
and away from the NC coast Wed/Wed night. Another Canadian high will
move ewd across Ontario and Quebec Wed and Thu, ridging swd into the
region, then continuing to slide ssewd across the Northeast Fri and
Sat. The high should shift off/along the New England coast Sat
night/Sun, while continuing to ridge sswwd into the area.
Temperatures: Cool nly-nely flow for much of the period will result
in near to below normal temperatures across the area. There is the
chance for a bit of damming on Wed, which could result in high
temperatures on Wed a bit lower than forecast across portions of the
Piedmont. The warmest days will be Thu/Fri, when the nly-nely flow
and ridging are weakest.
Precipitation: Most of central NC will likely remain dry through the
period. The exception is in proximity to the coastal low/trough Tue
night/Wed. Have maintained some slight chances for precip across the
Coastal Plain, with higher chances along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...
Widespread MVFR stratus continues across central NC, largely in the
wake of a southwest progressing cold front that is moving across the
Coastal Plain and Sandhills this afternoon. Near and to the south of
the front the airmass is warmer and could support some scattered
afternoon and evening showers and perhaps a thunderstorms, mainly
near and south of KGSB, KFBG, and KMEB. To the north and across most
of central NC, a cool and stable northeast flow will result in
widespread MVFR CIGS for most of the afternoon. Drier air well
behind the front is moving southeast into the Triad as of mid
afternoon and will continue to slowly spread southeast this evening
and overnight. This will result in some improvement in conditions
with VFR conditions arriving in the Triad between 18 and 21Z, at
KRDU and KRWI at around 22Z. KFAY will be a little trickier with
that location being in the warm sector this afternoon and then a
period of post frontal stratus this evening with some improvement
overnight. Areas of BKN clouds between 4-8kft can be expected across
the area overnight. The trend of improving sky conditions can be
expected on Monday with mainly clear skies and just a little high
cirrus in most locations although some residual moisture will result
in some VFR SCT-BKN clouds at KFAY during the morning. Northeast
winds at 10kts will gust at times to 20kts behind the front this
afternoon and evening. Northeast winds will relax a bit overnight
but will become gusty up to 16 to 20kts on Monday.
Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail into much of the upcoming
work week although a stalled front near the coast could retreat and
favor some increased cloud cover and a chance of sub-VFR conditions
in showers across eastern locations late Tuesday into Wednesday.
-Blaes
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Blaes

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion